BTC.D Hits 61%, ETH Struggles: Bearish Divergence Looms in May

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<a href="https://bbg-news.com/btc-usd/">BTC</a>.D Just Closed at 61%, and <a href="https://bbg-news.com/eth-usd/">ETH</a> Has Nowhere Left to Hide

Bitcoin‘s dominance (BTC.D) finished the day at 61.01%. Ethereum saw a small recovery that didn’t last, and most other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) are losing value. Technical indicators suggest a potential downward trend, and the market could experience further declines in May before potentially improving.

Bitcoin’s price increased by 2.47% on Friday with moderate trading activity. It briefly rose above a key technical level – the cloud – for the fourth time, rebounding about 4% from its fast-moving average.

The RSI structure has not changed. Lower highs, lower lows. Still there.

According to a post by MooninPapa on X (formerly Twitter), this recent price increase doesn’t change the overall outlook for Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is at the upper limit of a trading range, which is typically a pause before a potential move, not a sign that it’s breaking out to higher prices.

ETH Got Left Behind, and the Volume Confirms It

Ethereum closed up 1.69% Friday. Bitcoin posted 2.47%.

The recent price dip isn’t random. According to a YouTube analysis by MooninPapa, trading volume for Ethereum (ETH) is weak. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly recovered, it peaked at a lower level (49.58), suggesting a downward trend. MooninPapa believes ETH is likely to fall further before showing any significant signs of recovery.

There are price gaps in the market. Ethereum is currently trading between $2,260 and $2,339, Bitcoin between $76,000 and $79,000, and Solana between $82.85 and $84.95. These gaps usually get closed as prices adjust.

Bitcoin dominance closed at 61.01% Friday. The target MooninPapa had been calling for weeks.

The Problem With 61% Is What Comes After

Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) is making higher highs, but its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs. This is a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential price decrease. It doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s dominance will fall immediately, but the likelihood of a pullback is increasing with each price rise, as noted by MooninPapa on X.

Stablecoins only saw a slight decrease in dominance on Friday, falling just 1.69%. This is surprisingly low, and indicators suggest money isn’t moving out of stablecoins and into alternative cryptocurrencies; instead, it’s showing a pattern of increasing stability.

As an analyst, I’m watching TOTAL3ESBTC, which saw a 2% decrease on Friday. This metric essentially gauges the health of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Currently, it’s trending downwards and appears to be approaching a support level it last touched in June 2025. Looking at OTHERS/BTC, I see support around 5% lower, near 0.1. We might see a temporary price increase, or ‘bounce,’ from either of these support zones.

Whether it holds is a different question entirely.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) briefly dropped sharply on Friday but then started to recover, forming a higher low. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant fall, dropping from 160 to 155 in a single day. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has indicated it will remain vigilant during the Golden Week holiday, according to reports. This suggests a continued risk of intervention by the Bank of Japan, potentially involving selling U.S. bonds and buying back yen, which could push USD/JPY lower, even if there’s a temporary increase first.

DOGE, WLFI and the Picks Nobody Is Calling Clean

Financial charts aren’t providing clear signals right now. The market’s performance in April suggested May would be challenging, and that’s proving to be true. While major indexes like the ES and Dow Jones are reaching higher prices, an indicator called RSI is actually showing weakening momentum. The Dow opened at 49,988.56 on Friday but ultimately closed below a key resistance level, suggesting a potential peak. Nvidia’s stock also closed with a slight loss.

DOGE recently reached the upper boundary of its cloud on the weekly chart. One trader, MooninPapa, noted on X that this level is a common area for investors to sell and take profits. While it’s possible DOGE could rise to $0.11 or even $0.13, the overall market trend is currently working against it.

WLFI’s price fell another 10% on Friday, reaching an extremely oversold level according to its Relative Strength Index (RSI) which closed at 6.35 – the lowest ever recorded. While the project appears significantly bearish, MooninPapa suggests a potential, though risky, opportunity for short-term gains if the price bounces back.

As a researcher, I’ve observed a potentially bullish signal in RAVE late Friday. The indicator formed a divergence cluster, and the relatively flat slow line suggests it’s a meaningful signal. If this plays out, I’m initially targeting a bounce to around 117% higher, specifically towards the fast line on the daily chart. Separately, NEAR Protocol has been weakening. It broke through a support level on Thursday and closed lower on Friday. I’m looking for a retest of that broken support – now acting as resistance – before anticipating further downside movement.

ZBCN stock fell 10% on Friday, following a fourth signal that suggests further declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached its lowest point since mid-March. Despite this, the stock could still rebound by about 20%, as heavily oversold stocks often do.

MooninPapa still believes their initial outlook for X is correct. They anticipate prices will likely fall further before any significant recovery. While some technical indicators suggest a brief price increase is possible, being oversold doesn’t necessarily mean the price has hit its lowest point.

Just a quick note: I’m sharing what I’ve been seeing from some technical analysts, but this isn’t financial advice. I’m doing my own research, and you should too before making any investment decisions.

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2026-05-02 19:50