How Oscar Betting Odds Work: The Man Behind The Lines Explains The 2026 Race

by

Predicting the Oscars isn’t just guesswork. You can watch the nominated films and consider what the Academy usually favors. Another approach is to follow industry publications, which are filled with campaign advertisements. Finally, paying attention to earlier award shows – like the Critics Choice and Actors Guild Awards – can give you a good idea of how the Oscars might play out.

I’ve noticed something really interesting lately – if you want a good idea of who’s going to win, just look at the betting odds. It’s a new way of thinking about it, but it seems to be surprisingly accurate!

For years, I’ve always seen awards as a way to recognize truly great filmmaking – a blend of artistic merit and popular appeal. But honestly, with awards predictions now a huge business – we’re talking over $100 million! – it feels like the narrative is changing. It’s less about the art and more about the game, and I’m not sure how I feel about that.

Johnny Avello is uniquely qualified to discuss Oscar betting. He’s been setting odds for the Academy Awards since the mid-1990s, initially at Las Vegas hotels where he hosted viewing parties and informally adjusted the lines. He now works at DraftKings, where he’s helped expand Oscar betting from just New Jersey to ten states. This year, DraftKings is making Oscar predictions—and betting—available to a much larger audience than ever before.

How Oscar Betting Odds Are Actually Made


Image via Warner Bros.

More and more people are using prediction markets to bet on the Oscars, and the amount of money being wagered is increasing rapidly. For example, Polymarket has already seen $30 million bet on the 2026 Best Picture winner, a significant jump from the $5.3 million wagered last year.

The way betting odds are calculated is straightforward. Avello and his team start by setting initial odds in the fall, relying on insights from film premieres at major festivals. They then refine those odds based on how people are betting and the results of early award shows. Because of this ongoing adjustment, the current odds are usually quite different from the original ones set in October.

The biggest shifts in betting odds happen during live award shows, which are the clearest indicators of what’s happening in the market. When Michael B. Jordan won the Actor Award for Sinners, Avello’s team, like they do with any live sporting event with potential breaking news, temporarily removed the betting line for Best Actor. They waited for the announcement, then immediately reinstated it with Jordan as the new frontrunner. “This is the only way to avoid being caught off guard and losing money,” Avello explains.

There used to be a way for clever bettors to gain an advantage, particularly in the UK where online betting is well-established. By watching the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards live, they could place bets before betting companies updated their odds. However, that opportunity is now largely gone.

The data consistently shows something surprising: women are more actively involved in betting on the Oscars than on almost any other large entertainment event. According to Avello, women feel more confident placing bets on the Oscars because they generally know more about the films and actors than they do about sports like football.

What The Money Is Saying Right Now

What does someone who studies races and tries to predict the winner believe will win tonight?

As a huge movie fan, I’ve had One Battle After Another as my pick for Best Picture since October, and honestly, that’s pretty rare – usually, a frontrunner doesn’t stay on top for the whole awards season. I was talking to Avello earlier this week, and he said it’s starting to feel like things are shifting, which is putting it mildly! Sinners is absolutely dominating with a record-breaking 16 nominations, and it feels like it’s really gaining some serious traction.

According to Avello, Ryan Coogler’s film is poised for a successful awards night, with strong chances in categories like Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Casting. It could even win Best Picture, potentially earning a total of five awards. However, the competition is tight. Paul Thomas Anderson is heavily favored to win Best Director, largely because the winner of the Directors Guild Award typically wins the Oscar over 90% of the time. This makes the Best Picture race particularly unpredictable.

The Best Actor race has concluded, with a clear winner announced. Timothée Chalamet was the frontrunner for his performance in Marty Supreme, but Jordan’s recent Actor Award win dramatically shifted the odds. According to one expert, Jordan went from being a long shot to the favorite almost immediately. However, even with Jordan’s surge, the expert doesn’t believe Marty Supreme will win any Oscars. With so many nominations for other films, and Marty Supreme likely having only one chance at an award with this particular category, the outlook isn’t promising.

The acting awards are looking interesting. Jessie Buckley is the clear frontrunner for Best Actress, but Best Supporting Actress is still anyone’s guess. According to Avello, Sean Penn is the likely winner for Best Supporting Actor, especially after his wins at the SAG and BAFTA awards. He believes the other nominees didn’t receive enough recognition from the Screen Actors Guild to seriously challenge Penn.

These forecasts are pretty much in line with what I and other experts predicted earlier. However, what sets these apart is they’re based on the data that will influence billions of dollars in wagers over the next day.

The Common Mistakes In Oscar Predictions


A24

What Avello is getting at isn’t about individual films or categories, but a particular skill: the ability to analyze a movie as if you’re one of the Academy voters – and to understand that those voters don’t always make decisions based on logic.

He feels the voting committee sometimes just quickly goes through the list of movies without actually watching them. He plans to vote for One Battle After Another in the cinematography and film editing categories, acknowledging that, like bookmakers, they sometimes have to make decisions based on categories rather than a full viewing.

Subscribe to our newsletter for smarter Oscar odds

Hungry for sharper reads on betting markets? Subscribe to the newsletter for Oscars betting coverage, including clear odds analysis, market-moving signals, and the context that turns numbers into confident reads.

By subscribing, you agree to receive newsletter and marketing emails, and accept our
Terms of Use
and
Privacy Policy
. You can unsubscribe anytime.

When it comes to betting on movies, people often make the wrong choices by letting their personal preferences cloud their judgment. According to Avello, successful bettors focus on the technical aspects – things like the film’s direction, visuals, and sound – and try to view the movie objectively, without letting their own feelings influence their decisions.

Anyone believing in guaranteed outcomes should consider what happened at the 2021 Oscars. Everyone expected Chadwick Boseman to win Best Actor, posthumously, for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The ceremony was even rearranged, moving the Best Actor award to the very end to build up to what seemed inevitable. However, Anthony Hopkins actually won for The Father, and the show concluded rather quickly after the announcement. According to one insider, the network was genuinely surprised.

The Future Of The Oscars & Betting


Warner Bros.

The excitement around the 2026 Oscars will die down tomorrow, and people will start looking ahead to the next big event. However, the systems being created for betting on the Oscars aren’t going anywhere. We’ve seen increased investment, like Polymarket’s sponsorship of the Golden Globes, and companies like DraftKings are now offering prediction markets alongside their regular sportsbooks. More and more people are interested in Oscar odds, and that conversation is likely to continue and evolve.

According to Avello, it’s not just how easy it is to place bets, but how easy it is to get involved with the content being bet on. Films like One Battle After Another and Sinners are now readily available on streaming services like HBO Max, making it much simpler for people to watch them before placing a bet. Avello explains that this accessibility encourages viewers to watch these films, something they might not have done if they had to go to a theater.

Looking at how things have changed recently, it’s becoming clear what the future of the Oscars might hold. Imagine a time when changes in betting odds are discussed right alongside the acceptance speeches, and when the ups and downs of live betting are as interesting as who actually wins. We haven’t quite reached that point yet, but this year suggests we’re closer than ever before.

Read More

2026-03-15 15:37