Despite Bitcoin’s recent price increase, Benjamin Cowen doesn’t believe the worst is behind us. He predicts this rally won’t last, and expects another price drop soon, potentially hitting a low point in October.
His main argument centers around a pattern seen in 2014, 2018, and 2019: Bitcoin briefly rose above important average price levels during downward trends before continuing to fall. Historically, the time between Bitcoin’s lowest points in each cycle has been between 140 and 174 days.
Bitcoin Bear Market Still Intact
Despite Bitcoin’s recent gains, Cowen remains pessimistic, believing the current market trends are similar to those seen in previous cycles.
I expect the market to rise soon, likely peaking in the next few weeks, before falling back to its current levels.
The Bullish Counterargument
Cowen pointed out several reasons why predictions of a Bitcoin price drop might be inaccurate. So far this year, Bitcoin has performed much better than average for a midterm year. Currently, it’s only about 10% below where it started the year, while typically it would have fallen 30 to 35% by now.
It has also reclaimed the bull market support band. Cowen flagged another structural shift.
“Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria.”
Regular investors didn’t come back into the market, and smaller cryptocurrencies continued to lose value compared to Bitcoin even as Bitcoin’s price rose. This lack of interest at the recent high suggests this bear market might be different from previous ones.
Why the Pattern Still Points Lower
Looking at previous market trends, it makes sense to be cautious right now. In 2014, 2018, and 2019, Bitcoin’s price briefly surged above a key support level during bull markets before falling back down. The 200-day moving average acted as a ceiling during those pullbacks.
If my prediction is correct, it will seem clear in hindsight. But if I’m wrong, by the time a different approach proves successful, the worst of the situation will already be over.
Cowen also monitors the time between the lowest points in each market cycle. Lately, these cycles have typically reached a new low every 140 to 174 days.
“We’re currently on day 88. So, who’s to know what’ll happen in 3 months.”
Cowen believes this market recovery will likely top out in the next few weeks, then fall back to a key support level, potentially reaching a low point in October. For those who sold their investments around the highs last year, his main point is straightforward.
People who sold their Bitcoin in the last three months of the year, when many were predicting it would reach $300,000, are still in a good financial position.
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2026-05-06 14:51