Is Bitcoin Finally Rising? Grayscale Thinks So, but Not Everyone’s Convinced!

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In a rather audacious proclamation, Grayscale has ventured to declare the bottom of Bitcoin’s (BTC) bear market, positing that this beleaguered asset has found its footing within the $65,000 to $70,000 range. Such an assertion starkly contrasts with the prevailing sentiment that anticipates the nadir to materialize later in 2026, as if the universe were playing a grand game of cosmic poker.

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, noted with a hint of triumph that recent buyers have now sauntered back to breakeven, having witnessed a more than 20% resurgence since Bitcoin’s low near $63,000 on February 5. One can almost hear the sighs of relief echoing through the digital halls of cryptocurrency trading.

Grayscale’s On-Chain Case for a Bitcoin Bottom

This bold thesis rests upon a metric known as realized price, which averages a coin’s cost basis according to its most recent on-chain movements. It serves as a rather convenient proxy for the market’s collective breakeven level, as though it were a sagacious oracle.

For those coins that exchanged hands within the past one to three months, Grayscale estimates the realized price to hover around $74,000. This figure tantalizingly skirts just below the current price, leaving the newest cohort of buyers perched precariously at break-even, like tightrope walkers on a windy day.

“If Bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market,” Pandl remarked, perhaps brushing off his crystal ball with a flourish.

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Even though Bitcoin lingers far below its October pinnacle, Grayscale maintains that the rebound observed in February has already sculpted a resilient floor. Should further gains materialize, more recent buyers might rejoice as they wade into positive territory. The firm is convinced that this uptick aligns with a capitulation that has, by some stroke of fortune, already played itself out.

“Bitcoin’s price remains well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven-potentially signaling that Bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range,” the analysis sagely concluded, as if delivering a prophecy from above.

Why Some Analysts Still See a Deeper Bitcoin Low

Not all scholars of the crypto realm share Grayscale’s sunny disposition. Benjamin Cowen, the CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher (yes, you read that right), shared with BeInCrypto his belief that the true cycle trough might not grace our presence until October 2026. An earlier bottom, he mused, would necessitate capitulation surpassing historical mid-term expectations, which sounds quite dramatic, if not slightly theatrical.

“Bitcoin could bottom sooner, as early as May. But in order for that to happen, there would have to be some type of massive capitulation well below what we historically expect to see in midterm years,” he cautioned, as though warning of impending doom.

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Joao Wedson, the CEO of on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, echoes similar sentiments, projecting a low in late September or early October 2026, as though he were charting the stars. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant has painted a broader canvas, identifying a window stretching from June to December 2026, with September through November deemed most probable. One might say this range offers the bearish perspective ample room to roam, much more than Grayscale’s near-term optimism permits.

This dichotomy leaves traders suspended between two potential futures: either the February capitulation heralded the cycle low, ushering in a new bull trend for the fortunate recent buyers, or Bitcoin is fated for another descent before a lasting recovery dawns, perhaps later in 2026. Alas, such is the capricious nature of this digital market!

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2026-04-22 08:52