Bitcoin Surges Past $75k Amid Iran-Pakistan Ceasefire Talks & Equity Rally

<a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> reclaims $75,000 as Iran ceasefire talks advance, equities rally resumesMarkets

What to know:

Bitcoin climbed back above $75,000 as markets bet on progress in cease-fire talks between Iran and Pakistan, even as the current two-week truce nears its Wednesday deadline.
Despite the rebound, bitcoin continues to lag a broad global equity rally, with negative funding rates in perpetual futures signaling persistent bearish positioning even as spot bitcoin and ether ETFs see strong inflows.
Record selling by public bitcoin miners alongside a recent drop in mining difficulty suggests industry margins remain tight, raising questions about how sustainably prices can rise above the $76,000–$80,000 range without absorbing continued miner sales.

Bitcoin is back above $75,000, as markets price another diplomatic off-ramp.

The cryptocurrency market saw gains over the past day and week, boosted by news that Iran will continue ceasefire talks with Pakistan. Most major coins increased in value: Ether rose to $2,310 (up 1.2%), XRP reached $1.43 (up 1.3%), and BNB climbed to $630 (up 1.5%). Overall, the market was up 1.5% daily and 1.7% weekly. Solana was the only top 10 coin with more modest gains, increasing by just 0.9% and falling 1.1% for the week.

Global stock markets rebounded today after a brief dip yesterday, with the MSCI All Country World Index rising 0.1%. Asian stocks were the biggest drivers of this increase, particularly in the technology sector, which gained 2.4%. Meanwhile, oil prices edged down 0.7% to $94.81 a barrel, and gold and silver also decreased, falling 0.6% to around $1,950 and 1% to $28.63 respectively. U.S. government bonds and the dollar remained relatively stable.

The current two-week pause in fighting ends Wednesday evening in Washington D.C., and President Trump indicated on Monday he probably won’t renew it. Financial markets are currently reacting to this deadline.

Early Tuesday, three ships tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, representing the first attempt to test if the vital waterway is reopening despite ongoing blockades by both U.S. and Iranian forces, even before any agreement has been reached.

Throughout this recent market period, Bitcoin hasn’t performed as well as stocks. While global stock markets (as measured by the MSCI ACWI) have been consistently rising for 11 days, with only a brief pause, Bitcoin has been slowly recovering from around $74,000 to just over $75,000. This difference in performance is likely due to inherent characteristics of Bitcoin and how it’s traded.

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates have been negative for a record 46 days straight, according to Bloomberg data. This is the longest negative stretch since the failure of FTX in late 2022.

As an analyst, I’m tracking significant interest in spot crypto ETFs. Last week, we saw nearly a billion dollars – $996.4 million, to be exact – flow into Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum ETFs also experienced strong inflows, totaling $275.8 million. This indicates continued and growing demand for these investment products.

According to Kaiko, a financial research company, if the price of Bitcoin rises above $76,000, it could then climb towards $85,000.

Bitcoin mining companies sold off a significant amount of their holdings in the first three months of the year. According to TheEnergyMag, they sold a record 32,000 BTC, which is more than they sold throughout all of 2025 and exceeds the 20,000 BTC they sold following the Terra collapse in the spring of 2022.

Bitcoin mining recently became slightly easier, with the difficulty decreasing by 2.43% to 135.59 trillion. At the same time, the network’s processing power, measured as hashrate, has bounced back from around 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month, according to data from Glassnode.

Bitcoin traders are closely watching for short-term price movements. Positive news about talks in Pakistan could push Bitcoin above $76,000 and potentially trigger a rapid price increase, as noted by K33 Research. Conversely, if a deal isn’t reached by a Wednesday deadline set by Donald Trump, the price could fall below $74,000. More significant clues about Bitcoin’s future direction can also be found by analyzing data related to Bitcoin mining.

The fact that miners are selling Bitcoin quickly, especially after a recent drop in mining difficulty, indicates they’re still facing financial pressures even with the price going up. For the price to stay above $80,000, the market needs to be able to handle continued selling from these miners.

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