Treasury Yields Hit 12-Month High and Bitcoin Stalks $80k – Markets in Shock!

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Treasury yields hit 12-month high, <a href="https://tech-oracle.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> stalls

On May 15th, Treasury yields rose to their highest level in a year, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall back towards $80,500, just one day after a committee voted on the Clarity Act.

Summary

  • The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.5% on May 15, its highest since May 2025, after April CPI data came in at 3.8% above expectations.
  • CME FedWatch now prices a 44% probability of a Fed rate hike by December 2026, sharply reversing earlier expectations of multiple cuts this year.
  • Bitcoin remained below its 200-day simple moving average of $82,228, having failed to close above that level on five consecutive attempts this month.

On May 15th, interest rates on US Treasury bonds rose sharply, reaching a new 12-month high. The rate on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.54%, and the 2-year rate reached levels not seen since mid-2025. This increase followed a Senate committee’s approval of the Clarity Act, which briefly pushed Bitcoin prices above $82,000. However, by the end of the week, broader economic factors caused most of Bitcoin’s gains to disappear.

The latest inflation data for April revealed a rate of 3.8%, making it clear that interest rate cuts aren’t expected this year. According to data from CME FedWatch, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve actually *raising* rates by December has now risen to over 44%, while current rates remain between 3.50% and 3.75%. Just at the beginning of the year, many traders were predicting at least two rate cuts before the end of 2024.

What higher yields mean for Bitcoin

Bitcoin isn’t currently producing income like Treasury bonds, which are now offering better returns for investors holding dollars. As we’ve observed, rising interest rates are squeezing the potential for growth in riskier investments like cryptocurrencies and limiting the amount of money flowing into them.

While Bitcoin faces some downward pressure, there’s a positive trend in the market for tokenized Treasury bonds. Data from rwa.xyz shows that the total value of these bonds reached a new high of over $15 billion on May 15th. Essentially, the same conditions that are impacting Bitcoin are also drawing investment from institutions into a more accessible way to invest in government debt with good returns.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,592, slightly below its 200-day moving average of $82,228. It hasn’t been able to close above that level in five tries this month. According to crypto.news, overall economic conditions are making Bitcoin react more to changes in Federal Reserve policy than to new laws or regulations. If interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds keep rising towards 5%, it will become even harder for assets like Bitcoin to gain value.

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2026-05-15 23:08