On Thursday, the price of Brent crude oil rose to a six-week high, approaching $96 a barrel, following attacks by Houthi forces (supported by Iran) on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. These attacks represent a second potential disruption to the world’s oil supply, in addition to existing concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil prices have continued to climb, increasing over 10% this week following a significant jump of nearly 17.4% last week. The price is now approaching $100 per barrel – a point where both technical analysis and market psychology suggest strong resistance.
Saudi Aramco is changing where it ships oil to avoid potential attacks from the Houthis. Instead of sending tankers past Yemen, they are now offering oil shipments from a port on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast – specifically, their terminal at Sidi Kerir – ensuring buyers don’t have to risk the more dangerous route.
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 23, 2026
Red Sea Attacks Open a Second Supply Front
Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.8% on Thursday, reaching $95.70 a barrel – marking its fifth day of gains in a row, as reported by Trading Economics. Over the last month, the price has risen nearly 30%, and it’s up 38% compared to this time last year.
Following a missile and drone attack by Houthi militants on two Saudi tankers on Wednesday, oil prices rose sharply. This was the first time tankers had been directly targeted in the Red Sea during this conflict. The Houthis announced they were blocking shipping connected to Saudi Arabia, causing three oil tankers heading to Asia to change direction and turn back.
The Bab el-Mandeb strait is a crucial shipping lane, handling around 5.4 million barrels of oil daily in the first three months of the year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. If it were blocked, ships would have to travel all the way around Africa, significantly increasing shipping and insurance expenses.
The Houthis attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea last night, marking the first assault after declaring a new naval blockade. They currently control the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) July 23, 2026
U.S. military forces continued striking Iranian targets for the twelfth day in a row. President Trump stated that the U.S. will target Iranian infrastructure if Iran attacks any vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran warned it might attack energy facilities connected to the United States, and both Iran and the US indicated a ceasefire isn’t likely soon.
Problems with supply weren’t limited to the Middle East. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped accepting oil from Kazakhstan after drone attacks happened near its Black Sea facility.
However, the only negative news came from the EIA, which unexpectedly reported a 1.4 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories.
Weekly Chart Shows a Breakout Above the $92 Resistance
The market looks positive for buyers this week. Brent crude oil has risen by over 10% – building on a significant increase of nearly 17% from the previous week. Notably, the price has now moved above $92 per barrel, a level it had struggled to surpass since last year.
The price recently dropped sharply but found support around $72 earlier this month. This level lines up with the upper edge of a downward-trending channel that has influenced price movement for much of 2024 and 2025. Because this line previously limited price increases, it’s now acting as a floor.
The weekly Relative Strength Index is starting to show positive momentum, though it’s still currently neutral, just above 50. This means prices could continue to rise before becoming overbought. If Brent crude oil stays above $92, that price level is expected to act as a new floor for support.
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Rests on the $100 Test
Looking at the daily price chart, Brent crude oil showed a strong rebound from $70.14, quickly rising back to $89. It then broke through the $92 level and continued upward, surpassing $94.82.
The key test for price movement is now around $100.64, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This area also previously acted as both support and resistance, and it’s near the important $100 price point. Typically, when these factors combine, we see a significant price reaction the first time the price reaches this level.
If the price stays above $100.64 each day, it could climb to around $119.50 – a potential increase of about 19% from where the breakout happened. However, if the price falls, initial support can be found at $94.82, followed by the $92 level. If the price goes below $92, it would suggest this positive trend is likely over.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing increasing positive momentum, and so far, there are no signals suggesting a trend reversal. However, the underlying reason for any price movement is still an all-or-nothing situation.
If the current restrictions expand, oil prices could jump above $100 a barrel, increasing inflation and potentially harming cryptocurrency markets. However, if a long-term peace agreement is reached, the extra cost currently built into prices due to the war might disappear.
Brent crude oil has a clear path to $119.50 if it can break past $100.64. However, if it fails to do so, it may fall back down to around $92.
2026-07-24 02:23