Bitcoin is facing a potentially significant turning point. A popular chart analysis shared by crypto trader @0xPepesso suggests the price could drop sharply, potentially losing around $30,000 in value. This analysis highlights a pattern that often signals continued price declines.
Bitcoin’s Bear Flag Structure Signals Downside Risk
According to 0xPepesso, Bitcoin’s price movements since its steep drop earlier this year suggest a potential ‘bear flag’ pattern forming on its daily price chart, which could indicate further price declines.
The price of Bitcoin first signaled this pattern when it quickly fell from about $98,000 to around $60,000. Technical analysts call this initial drop the “flagpole” – it shows a strong and clear downward trend.

Following the recent drop in price, Bitcoin entered a period of slower, steady growth, eventually reaching its current value of $80,900. However, this recovery hasn’t been powerful; instead, it’s been a slow and gradual climb. This type of movement is often seen as a temporary pause within a larger downward trend, rather than a signal that the price is truly turning around.
As Bitcoin’s price rises, it’s approaching a critical area of potential resistance. It’s likely to test key moving averages – specifically the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages – which are currently around $78,500. These averages often act as barriers to further price increases, especially when the market is trending downwards and their upward momentum slows.
The fact that the price is trading below these moving averages supports the idea that the price will likely continue to fall. Technically speaking, the price repeatedly failing to move above these levels indicates that sellers are dominating, and buyers aren’t strong enough to push the price higher. Unless the price decisively breaks above these levels, the market is likely to keep trending downwards.
A $50,000 Target Emerges If Bitcoin Breakdown Confirms
If Bitcoin doesn’t manage to rise above a key group of moving averages and instead falls below the bottom of its recent upward trend, it would likely signal a downward turn. Based on typical technical analysis, this could lead to another price drop of a similar size to the previous one.
Based on current prices, a decline to between $50,000 and $55,000 is possible. This would be a drop of around $25,000 to $30,000 from the recent high near $78,500, and could lead to significant losses. This expectation is supported by past market patterns, as similar situations usually result in the price continuing to fall with the overall trend.
This pattern has a potential drawback. If the price strongly closes above the 200-day moving average, it could diminish the current setup and allow prices to rise. This might force traders who bet against Bitcoin to buy it back, potentially driving the price up to between $85,000 and $88,000.
Honestly, I’m still pretty cautious about the market overall. We don’t have much economic support pushing prices higher right now, so I’m leaning towards thinking we’ll continue to see downside unless things really turn around and we start seeing strong, positive price movement. Until then, I’m preparing for the possibility of further drops.

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2026-05-05 21:43