Wall Street’s XRP bull case now runs through Congress

Standard Chartered predicts XRP could reach $28 by 2030, but this forecast relies heavily on a specific bill being passed by the Senate. Currently, that bill has been stalled for a year, meaning the price target above $3 is considered a long shot – with roughly a 33% chance of happening. Essentially, this ambitious price prediction for XRP is tied to political action in Congress.

Summary

Price predictions for assets like XRP should focus on market factors, but one prominent forecast from Standard Chartered is heavily reliant on upcoming legislation. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts XRP could rise from around $1.10 to $28 by 2030, and he’s clear about what needs to happen: a general market recovery in the short term, and then passage of specific U.S. laws combined with significant investment through ETFs for further gains. However, these aren’t typical market forces. The required legislation has stalled in Congress for over a year, its details have changed multiple times, and experts give it only about a 33% chance of passing by 2026. Furthermore, the expected influx of ETF money has dwindled considerably since initial projections. While Kendrick’s forecast is detailed and based on specific conditions, many in the market seem to be ignoring those conditions. This analysis examines those conditions, assesses their likelihood, and asks whether owning XRP is truly investing in an asset with potential, or simply a bet on U.S. politics.

The roadmap, with its fine print restored

It’s important to fully explain Kendrick’s predictions, because understanding how they’ve changed over time is more valuable than focusing on any one specific number.

Back in April 2025, while Ripple was still involved in a legal battle with the SEC, analysts predicted XRP would reach $5.50 by late 2025, $8 by late 2026, and $12.50 by 2028. These predictions were based on three key factors: a resolution to the SEC case, between $4-8 billion flowing into XRP spot ETFs, and increased use of XRP for payments. Interestingly, all these things largely happened – the SEC ended its appeal, XRP ETFs launched in November and quickly attracted over a billion dollars (more than any Ethereum product), and Ripple invested around $2.7 billion in building out financial services. Despite this, the price of XRP actually fell to a 15-month low of $1.16 due to a broader market downturn, which some analysts believed signaled a final wave of selling. As a result, in February, the analyst significantly lowered their price target for XRP from $8 to $2.80 for 2026, and also reduced their targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

In my research, I noticed a key detail often overlooked in reports: the projected cost increases significantly over time. Currently, the revised projection is $2.80 this year, rising to $7 in 2027, $12.60 in 2028, $19.60 in 2029, and ultimately reaching $28 by 2030. Interestingly, these long-term projections actually *increased* even as the short-term ones decreased. The conditions for achieving each of these levels are clearly outlined in the bank’s analysis. Reaching the $2.80 level requires just a moderate economic recovery – things like lower interest rates, increased investor confidence, and a stabilization of the cryptocurrency market. However, getting to $7 and $12.60 depends on the passage of the CLARITY Act and cumulative inflows into ETFs exceeding $4 billion. The highest level, $28, is tied to a radical shift: XRP needing to move beyond being a tradable asset and becoming a fundamental part of the global financial system, with a market value approaching $1.7 trillion – roughly the peak value of all Bitcoin in October 2025. It’s important to understand this isn’t a simple compounded prediction; it’s more like a staircase. Each step requires meeting specific conditions, and starting with the second step, those conditions largely depend on action from the federal government.

The conditions, marked to market

Determine the cost of those two specific scenarios using today’s prices – that’s all you need to do.

The CLARITY bill, which aims to regulate the crypto industry, faces significant hurdles to becoming law this year. While it passed a Senate committee with bipartisan support in May, it hasn’t moved forward since. Recent negotiations, including a meeting at the White House, failed to resolve key disagreements about ethical concerns, disclosures regarding former President Trump’s cryptocurrency investments, and whether Democrats will support the bill. Currently, no Democrat is on board with the latest version, and time is running out as the Senate approaches its August recess. Experts now estimate there’s only around a 32% chance of the bill passing this year – down from nearly 50% earlier in the spring. Senator Lummis has cautioned that delaying action could push the legislation off for years. Although many lawmakers generally support establishing rules for the crypto market, the current obstacles mean its passage is far from guaranteed, impacting related investment strategies.

The second key factor – over $4 billion in ETF inflows – isn’t currently being met. For those unfamiliar with how this is tracked, crypto.news has a detailed explanation. The ETFs started strong, seeing $667 million in investments during their first month, far outpacing any recent launch. They continued to attract money for eight weeks, even while Bitcoin funds were experiencing outflows. However, inflows have since slowed dramatically. Weekly numbers that once reached $200 million are now around $2 million. July saw days with no new investment and even some outflows, bringing total inflows to roughly $1.49 billion – less than a third of the $4 billion target. Furthermore, much of the money invested is currently losing value, down about $493 million against the price of Bitcoin. The majority (82%) of these ETF assets are held in just three funds, and recent positive inflow days largely depend on strong sales from only two companies, while others see no activity. Analysts believe a recovery in inflows hinges on achieving the first condition – clear legal certainty – suggesting these two factors aren’t separate issues, but rather different aspects of the same challenge, ultimately requiring action from the Senate.

The case for the conditional bull

It’s important to clearly explain the best possible justification for this plan, as Kendrick isn’t easily misled and his approach actually makes a lot of sense.

Truly strong analysis means being upfront about what a prediction relies on. Unlike vague, optimistic forecasts, a solid prediction clearly states its assumptions – things like specific financial flows or infrastructure development. This allows it to be tested and adjusted as new information becomes available. When someone like Kendrick is willing to publicly revise a prediction downwards – in his case, by 65% – it shows they’re prioritizing accuracy over simply sticking to a pre-set number. He also thoughtfully adjusted his long-term outlook for XRP, arguing that underlying developments like acquisitions and licensing actually strengthen its potential over the next decade, even if the short-term results are disappointing. This demonstrates a consistent and logical viewpoint, not simply an attempt to avoid admitting a mistake.

Despite appearing risky, this legislative effort is actually quite promising. There’s strong support from both Democrats and Republicans, significant industry investment, and White House backing. Previous legislation, known as GENIUS, demonstrated that enough votes exist when the content and political climate are favorable. While bills often seem stalled until the last minute, prediction markets underestimated GENIUS even in its final month. If a new framework like CLARITY isn’t passed until 2027 instead of 2026, the timeline will simply be delayed by a year – a manageable adjustment. An investment currently valued at $1.10, with a potential target of $7, presents a highly attractive opportunity for investors. Bitwise’s optimistic projections, reaching $29.32, suggest that a formal valuation framework – not just a single bank’s belief – can drive these kinds of results if the underlying assumptions prove correct.

Beyond these two main factors lies a crucial, but less discussed element: the established financial infrastructure supporting this project. This includes pending approvals for a banking charter and a Federal Reserve master account – something new for a crypto company – as well as prime brokerage services handling massive transaction volumes. If this infrastructure leads to actual use of the token, it will create inherent demand and support its price, no matter what happens with regulations. Essentially, those optimistic about this project believe the necessary conditions are in place, the risks have been accounted for, and the potential gains outweigh them.

The case that a conditional target is not a target

A critical analysis doesn’t question Kendrick’s data itself, but rather how we should interpret it.

A price prediction that relies on significant legislative action is essentially a political forecast, and financial institutions aren’t any better at predicting those outcomes than general prediction markets. The current XRP price, which reflects a one-in-three chance of favorable legislation, isn’t a sign of market inefficiency. Instead, it represents the collective assessment of a market that has been tracking this bill for a year. When you realistically consider all the necessary conditions, the potential value decreases significantly. Specifically, a $7 price in 2027, combined with a low probability of the legislation passing and the ETF needing to reach a certain threshold with limited investor interest, results in a price far below the initial headline figure – which, interestingly, is close to where the token is currently trading. Therefore, XRP trading at $1.10 isn’t overlooking positive developments; it’s accurately reflecting the value, *including* the likelihood of those conditions being met. The difference between the current price and optimistic projections highlights the unlikelihood of those conditions, not a lack of market awareness.

The extreme difference in potential outcomes – $29.32 versus 13 cents – isn’t a typical valuation range for a business. It represents a simple on/off event with a financial component. Such a massive 200-to-1 difference doesn’t occur with assets that have gradual future prospects; it happens when everything hinges on a single factor. In this case, that factor is the regulatory environment and institutional acceptance surrounding the asset, both of which are external to the asset itself. Investors are exposed to the impact of these external factors but have no control over them. This is fundamentally different from owning a stake in a growing business and therefore requires a different way of thinking about its potential value, rather than simply setting a price target.

Looking at past market behavior with XRP reveals a concerning pattern. Previously, supporters believed legal battles were the only thing holding back the price. When those battles ended and positive developments like ETFs and acquisitions happened, the token *still* performed poorly, dropping over 60% from its peak even as these improvements occurred. This showed that simply removing an obstacle doesn’t guarantee a price increase – a risk that’s now repeating with potentially greater consequences due to increased governmental involvement. We’ve already seen this play out: the ETFs launched, money flowed in, yet the price continued to fall for eight weeks and buyers disappeared. A strategy that failed during its initial test run isn’t likely to succeed just by taking it to a higher political level.

One key factor in Ripple’s future, often overlooked, deserves closer attention. Unlike other positive developments, this one isn’t solely dependent on legislative action – it relies on approvals from banking regulators, which take time. Specifically, Ripple is pursuing a national trust bank charter and direct access to the Federal Reserve’s payment system. While the charter is conditionally approved, final sign-off is still needed, a feat only one crypto company has achieved. The Fed application, which would give Ripple’s XRP direct access to the central bank, is currently paused and won’t be reviewed until late 2026, with Kraken being the only precedent. Furthermore, Ripple’s acquisition of Hidden Road has created a prime brokerage service handling significant institutional trading volume, unmatched by other crypto firms. Analysts believe Fed approval is the biggest potential catalyst for XRP, shifting its position from simply having regulatory permission to becoming a core part of the financial infrastructure. However, like the charter approval, this hinges on government decisions made by regulators, not lawmakers, and will likely take years. While these developments strengthen the optimistic outlook for XRP, they don’t necessarily speed up the timeline – which is why analysts predict these benefits won’t be fully realized until 2029 or 2030.

The situation with XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is more complex than simple overall numbers suggest. While several launched recently, a few companies – Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin – control around 82% of the assets. The others are seeing very little investment. Even on the best day in July, most of the inflow came from just two providers. This means reaching the $4 billion target isn’t about broad market interest in XRP; it’s about these leading companies attracting an additional $2.5 billion from investors who already hold XRP at a loss.

Investment flows tend to follow performance trends, which explains why the initial surge of ETF launches happened while the price was falling – and why things have slowed down since then. The previous launch showed that even rapid growth in ETF inflows ($1 billion faster than any asset since Ethereum) didn’t lead to a price increase. Now, achieving another influx from a lower starting point, with recent performance being weaker, will be much more challenging.

The real hurdle for investors isn’t just the total amount of money in these ETFs; it’s this specific and difficult task of convincing existing holders to invest significantly more.

What a holder actually owns

Strip the argument to its usable core and the position clarifies.

When XRP trades below $3, its price movements largely follow broader market trends, reacting to the same economic factors – like Federal Reserve policies and overall market liquidity – as other risky assets. In this price range, XRP’s future plans don’t offer much insight beyond what Bitcoin’s price chart already suggests. However, if XRP rises above $3, optimistic price targets – ranging from $5 to $28 – depend on two key things: new regulations that would allow institutional investors to easily trade it, and the resulting increase in investment. Someone who bought XRP at $1.10 is essentially taking on three risks: the general ups and downs of the crypto market, a roughly 33% chance of favorable legal changes, and the hope that legal clarity will actually drive demand for the token – something that didn’t happen after the last SEC ruling.

The situation isn’t unreasonable; investments with uneven potential rewards are perfectly valid, and the clear plan outlining the necessary steps is what allows anyone to assess its value. What *is* illogical is focusing on specific price points without considering the deadlines attached to them. Those deadlines – the vote before the August break, sessions in the fall, and the 2027 election cycle – essentially create a timeline for reaching that price target. Pay attention to Polymarket’s CLARITY indicator more than XRP’s price, monitor weekly ETF activity for signs of progress toward the $4 billion goal, and see if ongoing developments become more stable. The bank has clearly stated what needs to happen, and the market is showing how likely it believes that outcome to be. The biggest mistake an investor can make is only looking at one piece of information and ignoring the other. As Crypto.news pointed out, understanding institutional investment means recognizing that delayed announcements and news about trading volume are conditions to watch, not guarantees.

Frequently asked questions

What is Standard Chartered’s current XRP forecast?

What conditions does the roadmap depend on?

How likely is the CLARITY Act to pass?

How are the ETF inflows tracking against the $4 billion condition?

Why did XRP fall even as its earlier catalysts arrived?

What does the Bitwise model’s range mean?

Is a conditional price target still useful?

What should XRP holders watch next?

2026-07-21 16:25