Experienced trader Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin’s price will likely drop further before it starts to rise significantly. He believes the price could bottom out around $40,000 to $50,000 in early October, and then potentially climb above $250,000 by 2029, as he shared with Ciaran Lyons on the Trade Secrets show.
Key Takeaways
- Peter Brandt expects a bitcoin bottom near $40,000 to $50,000 in early October 2026.
- Brandt targets a bitcoin top above $250,000 in late summer 2029, not 2027.
- Brandt pushed his $1 million bitcoin timeline to 2031 or 2032, past the 2030 consensus.
Peter Brandt, who has traded markets for 51 years, said he correctly called bitcoin’s most recent top within days of Oct. 4, and he is applying the same cycle logic to the current downturn. The veteran trader discussed his outlook during a 32-minute interview on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, with show host Ciaran Lyons. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of more than $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025, before falling into the bear market that has followed.
A Cycle He Says Has Been Reliable
Brandt described a pattern he calls the “banana model,” which he believes consistently appears in Bitcoin’s price movements. He predicts Bitcoin might temporarily rise to around $10,000 before continuing to fall, potentially reaching the $40,000 range.
Every major bitcoin bear market since inception has produced a correction of 80% or more, according to Brandt. He does not expect that pattern to repeat this time, arguing bitcoin has matured enough to avoid its past downside extremes.
Sentiment Has Not Broken Yet
According to Brandt, market lows aren’t reached when people are simply unsure about things. Instead, he believes the turning point happens when investors who have held onto an asset for a long time finally give up on it completely.
According to Brandt, people expecting a bitcoin bull market currently aren’t recognizing its natural, cyclical patterns.
He described the bottom as arriving once retail longs capitulate, rather than through a single event like a Michael Saylor liquidation. Brandt said Strategy’s average purchase price is well below current levels, and forced selling would more likely come from retail investors giving up than from Saylor himself.
Why Brandt Still Calls Bitcoin a Store of Value
Even though Brandt recently predicted a short-term price drop, he still believes Bitcoin will increase in value over the long run. He explains that Bitcoin isn’t primarily used for everyday transactions, but rather as a long-term store of wealth, like gold. Brandt emphasized:
“Bitcoin is a superior store of value.”
He puts bitcoin alongside gold as a long-term store of value and said he expects the two assets to eventually share that title. Brandt said his 2029 target reflects that view.
According to Brandt, he believes Bitcoin will exceed $250,000 and potentially reach its peak around 2029. He anticipates this high point occurring in late summer of that year, with a price between $250,000 and $300,000.
Quantum Computing, Not Washington, Is the Bigger Risk
Brandt isn’t worried that stricter U.S. rules for cryptocurrency will hurt Bitcoin in the long run. He points out that Bitcoin has historically *increased* during times when the government was critical of it, and decreased when governments were supportive. He believes the market will adjust to any political changes on its own.
He identified quantum computing as the biggest future risk, not because it could directly hack Bitcoin, but because it has the potential to fundamentally change how we exchange and safeguard value.
A Different Timeline for $1 Million Bitcoin
Some analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, but Brandt believes it will happen later—likely in 2031 or 2032. He suggests that 2030 is more likely to be a low point in the market rather than a high.
Where He’d Put $10,000 Today
When asked how he’d invest $10,000 in bitcoin, gold, and silver, Brandt explained he’d prefer to buy slowly over time as prices decrease, instead of investing the full amount immediately. He believes silver in the $50s and gold below $4,000 offer good buying opportunities, and intends to hold these investments for the long term, potentially for many generations.
AI Stocks Draw a Bubble Warning
Brandt also weighed in on capital rotation away from crypto and into artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. He compared current AI valuations to the dot-com bubble of 2000 and said he expects that bubble to eventually pop, even as it could grow larger before it does.
Brandt predicts a small surge in altcoin prices this summer, but continues to believe Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will reliably hold its value long-term. He expects most other tokens to decrease in value eventually.
2026-07-21 19:58