Over 50% of XRP Holders Are Underwater-Is a Major Crash Coming?

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<a href="https://bbg-news.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a>: More Than 50% of Holders Are Underwater: Supply Is Frozen, Demand Is Missing

Key Takeaways

  • Over half of XRP’s circulating supply is currently in unrealized loss.
  • Exchange reserves on Binance fell from 2.81 billion XRP in mid-March to 2.74 billion.
  • Whale-to-exchange flow stands at 261.
  • Low whale activity removes selling pressure but does not create demand.
  • The on-chain data points to a market in suspension, waiting for an external catalyst to force a decision.

The Majority of XRP Holders Are in Loss

XRP attracted a lot of new investors when its price rose above $2 in late 2024, peaking near $3.40 in early 2025. According to data from Glassnode, these new investors now make up the largest group holding XRP at a loss. Currently, over half of all XRP in circulation is held by people who bought it at a higher price than its current value of around $1.32.

That single number changes how we view everything that happens next. While the market appears to be stabilizing above its support level, it’s also clear that most investors are currently experiencing losses. These losses are particularly concentrated among those who bought the asset one to three months ago – right at or near the recent high. Data on realized losses, broken down by how long investors have held the asset, confirms this: that group holds the largest amount of losses and, importantly, they aren’t selling.

Pinpointing the reasons behind a lack of sales, and how that impacts price, is where blockchain data provides clearer insights.

Declining Reserves, Declining Activity

Binance’s XRP reserves have decreased from around 2.81 billion in mid-March to 2.74 billion in early April. Generally, a drop in exchange reserves like this suggests less XRP is available for sale, which could mean reduced selling pressure on the market.

The situation shifts how we interpret this data. XRP reserves reached their highest point around the same time the price hit $1.55 in mid-March, but then decreased as the price went down. This matching drop is a key indicator. When people decide to keep their XRP instead of selling – showing confidence in its future – the amount held on exchanges decreases, and the price usually stays stable or goes up.

That’s not the case. The decrease in available coins isn’t due to anything unusual – it’s simply because there’s less activity happening. People aren’t trading as much, so fewer coins are being held on exchanges.

This difference is clearly reflected in the whale data, and it complicates the idea of seeing that data as purely positive.

Whales Have Stopped Moving

Currently, very few large XRP holders (often called ‘whales’) are depositing their coins onto Binance. This activity, measured as 261, is extremely low compared to its peak in mid-2025 when it reached between 55,000 and 60,000. Because whales aren’t moving their XRP to exchanges, it reduces the likelihood of a significant price drop, as large sell-offs are less likely. Typically, large deposits to exchanges indicate whales are preparing to sell, but that isn’t happening now.

Just because we’re not seeing large sellers doesn’t automatically mean the price will go up. Many people misinterpret this data. For the price to rise significantly, we need both a decrease in selling *and* an increase in buying. While data shows large holders have stopped selling, it doesn’t tell us if anyone is actually buying. These large holders aren’t selling, but they also aren’t visibly buying either.

Prices are falling in line with the decreasing exchange reserves, indicating a common problem. Neither is attracting enough buyers to cause a lasting price increase. Without more demand, prices will likely continue to move sideways, potentially with a slight downward trend.

What the Market Is Actually Waiting For

These three data sets aren’t telling different stories – they’re all looking at the same situation: XRP is essentially on hold, with activity stalled.

As a crypto investor, I’m looking at the data and seeing that over 50% of us are currently holding coins we bought at a higher price, but we’re not dumping them. Interestingly, the big players – the ‘whales’ – are unusually quiet. At the same time, the amount of this crypto available is going down as the price falls. Now, none of these things *guarantee* a price increase, but they do suggest that there isn’t much selling pressure left. Basically, we’re in a situation where something *external* – something the blockchain data itself can’t predict – will likely determine where the price goes next. It’s a bit of a waiting game.

Something outside of normal trading is likely causing the current situation. This could be a specific event related to Ripple or the XRP Ledger, a wider change in how people feel about crypto – perhaps influenced by recent inflation news – or another major market factor. According to analysis from CryptoQuant, the current stable, but slightly downward, price suggests the market is waiting for significant news to drive trading activity. Without that news, prices will likely remain stuck between $1.30 and $1.35, with neither buyers nor sellers taking a strong position.

The Bigger Picture

The fact that 50% of XRP holders are currently facing losses isn’t just a number – it reflects how many feel right now. Most bought XRP at higher prices and are now hoping for either a price rebound, a final sell-off, or something to decisively move the market in one direction or the other.

This overhead resistance isn’t likely to disappear on its own. There are two possible outcomes: either the price goes back up to where people originally bought, allowing them to sell at a profit, or the price drops further, triggering a final sell-off that eliminates the current pressure and establishes a new low point. Currently, data from large investors and exchanges suggests neither of these scenarios is happening yet.

The market is currently stuck between two possible results, and what happens next will depend on the same big economic factors influencing everything else this week: inflation numbers, hints from the Federal Reserve, and whether the situation with U.S.-Iran talks improves or gets worse.

The way XRP is built doesn’t predict *when* a significant price change will happen, only that the market is set up for a quick reaction when it does. Essentially, the conditions for a large price increase or decrease are already present, meaning a sharp move could happen in either direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-04-06 21:02