ETH Stuck in $120 Range as Supply Disappears: What’s Next?

<a href="https://bbg-news.com/eth-usd/">ETH</a> Is Stuck in a $120 Range While Its Supply Disappears

Key Takeaways:

ETH trapped between 0.786 Fib ($2,053) and 0.618 Fib ($2,171) for days.
SMA100 at $2,157 and SMA50 at $2,260 both declining, acting as resistance.
Exchange reserves at 14.9M ETH, lowest since 2022, down from 30M four years ago.
32.2% of all ETH supply locked in staking, rising consistently since 2022.
Tom Lee accumulated 5.4M ETH through BitMine, 4.47% of circulating supply.

Ethereum is currently trading at $2,093, a 0.93% increase. It’s fluctuating within a price range, roughly between $2,053 and $2,171. This $118 range has potential resistance above and a key support level at $2,053 – if that level falls, the price could drop to $1,941. Interestingly, the amount of Ethereum available for sale is at its lowest point in over two years. This creates a conflicting picture: the price chart suggests potential for a decline, while the limited supply suggests a potential price increase.

The range and what’s sitting above it

Looking at Ethereum’s daily price chart, a Fibonacci retracement pattern extends from a low of $1,941.09 in March to a high near $2,465.29 in April. After rising through April and reaching the initial Fibonacci level (0.0), the price has been falling back. Currently, ETH is trading around $2,093, which is between the 0.5 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, and closer to the 0.786 level, acting as potential support.

Price is currently facing strong resistance at two key levels. The first is a tight zone around $2,160 – $2,175, created by the 100-day Simple Moving Average and a Fibonacci retracement level. It’s about $65 above the current price. If price breaks through this, the next target is around $2,205. Beyond that, another resistance zone forms between $2,260 and $2,265, created by the 50-day Simple Moving Average and another Fibonacci level. These two areas of resistance are within $170 of each other, and the decreasing moving averages suggest downward pressure at each level.

Three declining moving averages

All three Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are trending downwards. The 50-day SMA, currently at $2,260.78, has been decreasing since its high in April. The 100-day SMA, at $2,157.93, is also falling, but appears to be leveling off – it’s very close to the current price, indicating Ethereum is trading slightly below its 100-day average and struggling to rise above it. The 200-day SMA, at $2,528.49, is falling the fastest and is currently $435 above the current price.

Whether the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is going up or down is more important than its exact value. Since Ethereum’s peak above $4,000 in late 2024, the SMA200 has been falling, and it’s dropping more quickly than the price is rising. As long as it continues to fall, it creates a lower and lower ceiling for price increases. This isn’t a fixed resistance level; it’s a resistance that gets lower with each rally.

RSI flattening near oversold

Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 38.73, getting close to the 30 level, which often signals a potential price increase. The RSI and its signal line are very close together – just under a point apart – suggesting that the downward trend is losing strength. This is different from Bitcoin, where the RSI was much lower than its signal line. While Ethereum isn’t showing a clear reversal yet, the downward momentum is definitely slowing down.

Exchange reserves at the lowest point since 2022

Understanding the amount of Ethereum held on cryptocurrency exchanges is key to predicting its future price. Currently, exchanges hold only 14.9 million ETH – the lowest amount since 2022. This is a significant drop from around 30 million ETH four years ago, representing a 50% decrease in supply held by exchanges. This decline has happened consistently, regardless of whether the market was going up, down, or staying stable.

Exchange reserves track the amount of Ether held in exchange wallets that can be quickly sold. A decrease in these reserves suggests that Ether holders are either taking control of their coins through self-custody or locking them up in staking, reducing the amount available for immediate sale. Currently, with about 120 million Ether in circulation, the 14.9 million held on exchanges represents roughly 12.4% of the total supply available for sale, a significant drop from the approximately 25% held in 2022.

This trend is further emphasized by Ethereum’s staking rewards. Since the Merge, the annual staking rate has increased steadily from about 8% in mid-2022 to 32.2% now, regardless of market fluctuations. With over 30% of all Ether currently staked, that amount is temporarily unavailable for sale, requiring a withdrawal process. As a result, the amount of Ether readily available for immediate sale is lower than it’s been in the past four years.

The price is currently near its lowest point in a year, but the amount of cryptocurrency available on exchanges is at a four-year low. This unusual situation isn’t immediately obvious from looking at a price chart alone. It suggests either that people who are still selling are actively transferring their coins to exchanges to do so, or that broader economic conditions are weakening demand enough to prevent the price from rising, even with limited supply.

Tom Lee is accumulating while the chart grinds lower

As a crypto investor, I’ve been watching BitMine closely. They’re building a serious Ethereum stash, and it’s impressive. Tom Lee from Fundstrat seems to be involved, and they’re basically copying MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin playbook by holding ETH on their balance sheet. They just added a huge chunk – over 111,000 ETH – and now they own around 5.39 million ETH total. That’s almost 4.5% of *all* Ethereum in circulation, held by one company! It’s a big move and definitely signals confidence in Ethereum’s future.

Lee sees Ethereum not as something to simply gamble on, but as a foundational technology for the future of finance. He believes Ethereum is leading the way because it handles most stablecoin transactions, is at the forefront of tokenizing assets, has a lot of activity on its scaling solutions (Layer 2), and is increasingly being used for blockchain applications powered by artificial intelligence.

Buying 4.47% of the available supply now, when exchanges have limited reserves and the price is very low, suggests a long-term investment strategy rather than a quick attempt to profit from rising prices. Lee is strategically purchasing to counteract a negative trend indicated by the price chart.

The Ethereum Foundation appears to be selling less

The Ethereum Foundation shouldn’t be seen as the core of Ethereum, but rather as a single part of a much larger network. They’re also working to reduce how much ETH they sell – which has often put downward pressure on the price – and are instead prioritizing things like protecting against censorship, improving privacy and security, and building open-source tools.

Some of my perspective on where the is going.

Please keep in mind this is just my personal opinion. I’m only one member of the board, and I don’t have any unique authority or insight that others don’t share. Ultimately, the team is driving this change forward…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin)

If the Ethereum Foundation is selling less ETH, it means there’s one less consistent source of the cryptocurrency available on the market. This, along with decreasing ETH held in exchanges, a significant 32.2% of ETH being staked, and large institutions buying up ETH, suggests the available supply is slowly decreasing even as the price goes down.

Where ETH stands

The market looks negative right now. We’re seeing three downward-trending moving averages above the current price, and two areas of strong resistance clustered relatively close together around $170. The 200-day simple moving average is falling sharply and acts as a distant ceiling at $2,528. A break below the $2,053 support level could lead to a further drop to $1,941.

As a crypto investor, I’m seeing some positive signs regarding supply, but right now, the $2,053 level is really the key. Whether we move up or down largely depends on if we can hold above that price. It’s a crucial support level at the moment.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

2026-05-27 13:00