Bitcoin’s price increase is facing challenges around $68,000. Approximately 3.55 million Bitcoins are now held by owners who paid less for them, creating a large amount of potential selling pressure that’s counteracting the strong demand from new Bitcoin ETFs.
Key Takeaways
- A cluster of 3.55 million BTC has cost bases concentrated around $68,000.
- Bitfinex says ETF inflows, not AI stocks, have been the main driver of bitcoin’s July price action.
- A sustained move above $68,000 with restrained funding could remove a major source of selling pressure.
ETF Demand Is Driving Bitcoin, but Price Faces a Supply Wall
Bitcoin’s price increased by about 10% in July, recovering from a low of around $58,000 to roughly $63,955 on July 24th. Despite this gain, analysts at Bitfinex suggest that 3.55 million Bitcoin purchased when prices were near $68,000 are currently preventing the price from consistently staying above that level.
Analysts believe the recent gains in the market are mainly due to demand from within the crypto world itself, not because of general positive trends in the tech industry.
In July, Bitcoin’s price movements are mainly being influenced by what’s happening within the crypto market itself – specifically, how much money is flowing into Bitcoin ETFs and how traders are positioning themselves in the derivatives market.
According to Bitfinex, spot bitcoin ETF demand has become the dominant force behind July’s rally, outweighing the influence of AI-related technology stocks. The assessment coincided with a seven-session inflow streak for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.
Experts noted that the recent changes in Bitcoin’s price seem to be driven more by events within the crypto world itself, and less by how it typically moves with big tech stocks like Nvidia and Google.
Why 3.55 Million BTC Create a $68,000 Wall
Even with consistent purchases through ETFs, Bitcoin had trouble staying above $68,000. Bitfinex explained this resistance was due to many investors who bought around that price point being hesitant to sell, limiting the available supply.
Okay, so looking at why Bitcoin might struggle to break higher right now, it seems like there’s a lot of selling pressure building up around $68,000. Analysts are pointing out two key price levels where people are likely to start taking profits. First, around $68,073 is where recent buyers – those who’ve held for a short time – originally bought in. Then there’s the monthly open at $68,266. What’s interesting is that a big chunk of Bitcoin, about 3.55 million coins held between six and twelve months, also have an average purchase price in that same $68,000 range. This means lots of people are sitting on gains at that level, and could potentially start selling, creating resistance.
A group of investors who purchased Bitcoin between six and twelve months ago are nearing the point where they’d break even on their investment. Some of these investors may sell when the price hits what they originally paid, potentially increasing the amount of Bitcoin available at around $68,000. This explains why there’s resistance at that price level – buyers need to first purchase coins from those looking to sell at breakeven before $68,000 can become a stable support level.
Weekly fund flow data from Farside Investors shows that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continued attracting net inflows during July despite technical resistance. The inflows are supporting bitcoin, but they have not cleared the supply concentrated near $68,000.
What Bitcoin Needs to Break the Wall
Bitfinex says that large bitcoin holders – those with 100 to 1,000 BTC – sold around $5.1 billion worth of bitcoin in May and June. This selling pressure was significantly higher than the amount of bitcoin purchased by spot ETFs during their peak week of buying.
According to the firm, the next crucial step for Bitcoin is to consistently stay above $68,000 without heavy borrowing. If this price level is reached through regular purchases, rather than risky futures trading, it would indicate that buyers are steadily absorbing the supply from investors looking to sell at their original purchase price, which could turn a previous resistance level into a new support level.
As an analyst, I’m watching Bitcoin closely. If we see a sustained move above $68,000 – meaning it stays there – I expect some pressure from sellers to ease up. There’s been quite a bit of selling from investors hoping to recoup losses, and clearing that level could remove that overhang, potentially paving the way for further price increases.
2026-07-24 17:58