Bitcoin Crash: The Four-Year Cycle That Keeps Trolling Investors

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Bitcoin has toppled the grand trendline that used to prop up the entire bull parade.

Crypto analyst Nathan Sloan of Investing Made Simple laid out the key levels and whispered that the four-year cycle has a knack for repeating itself, like a stubborn spell that forgot it’s not supposed to work anymore.

After failing to reclaim $100,000-which had once pretended to be a friendly floor but turned into a pompous barrier-Bitcoin slid past $70,000 and is currently wandering about $65,845.

Meanwhile the entire market sorcery isn’t immune; gold‘s doing a graceful stumble, silver did a dramatic 10% pirouette in a single day, and the NASDAQ is softly backing away, like a cranky librarian retreating behind a stack of dangerous numbers.

Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Points to a Familiar Pattern

Sloan noted that averaging the 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks yields a remarkably precise sketch of this cycle’s apex, which makes the four-year weather pattern a stubborn cousin you can’t pretend isn’t there.

Bitcoin has chalked up five red months in a row since October, a streak only encountered once before-in the great 2018 bear, when it managed six. A relief rally seems overdue-ish, given Bitcoin hasn’t mustered more than six months of gloomy red since the dawn of wearing socks with sandals.

Historically, cycle bottoms have landed around October.

Bitcoin Buying Levels to Watch

Sloan laid out four price zones, the kind of numbers that make charts whisper ‘this is serious’.

The $70,000 ceiling, once the proud crown of the 2021 caper, has been shattered. Bitcoin now wanders well below what Sloan would call a sturdy long-term entry playground.

The $63,000 zone, now less than 4% below current prices, would be a 50% drop from the peak. At that sill, simply crawling back to the old high would hand you a two-for-one.

The 200-week moving average sits just below $60,000 and climbs like a sleepy dragon. Sloan flags this as historically reliable; every major crypto crash has either nuzzled or dunked its snout below this line before springing back.

“If you can lurk between 60 and 70, ignore the chorus of pain and the choir of fear for the next 3 to 6 months, you’ll likely do very, very well,” he said.

Fed Policy Could Decide What Happens Next

Sloan treats policy as the biggest macro magnet for crypto. He compares this moment to 2019, the last time the Fed did an about-face-roughly a 53% drawdown before the bounce.

His own cunning plan is to buy back around the $63,000 level within the next month or two, accepting the risk of being early.

“The only downside for me is that I might be too early. So yes, Bitcoin could go sideways for months. It could even dip a tad more,” he said.

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2026-02-06 14:03