Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $125K by 2026: Here’s Why

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Arthur Hayes on How Close Is <a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> to $125,000

Key Takeaways:

  • Hayes: Bitcoin hits $100K after summer, $125K by end of 2026
  • Dollar liquidity improvement is the primary Bitcoin catalyst, not legislation
  • Hayes hopes CLARITY Act gets vetoed: “we don’t need it”
  • Selling Bitcoin and Ethereum to buy Hyperliquid
  • Hyperliquid is the only altcoin Hayes considers worth owning

Bitcoin to $125K and the Macro Case Behind It

In an interview with Cointelegraph at Bitcoin Vegas, Arthur Hayes predicted Bitcoin will reach $100,000 after the summer and climb to $125,000 by the end of 2026. He believes this increase won’t be driven by regulation, but by the availability of US dollar liquidity.

According to Hayes, reaching a $100,000 price for Bitcoin depends largely on avoiding a wider conflict involving Iran. He notes that markets seem to be dismissing the geopolitical risks, and evidence suggests trade is continuing despite political rhetoric. However, he believes the key factor is a type of financing happening through commercial banks, which is increasing the availability of US dollars. This improved dollar liquidity, he argues, is already driving Bitcoin’s performance beyond that of the NASDAQ and US software stocks, and he anticipates this trend will continue through the autumn.

Arthur Hayes is predicting Bitcoin will reach $125,000, surpassing its previous peak. He’s currently shifting his investments from Ethereum to Hyperliquid, suggesting he thinks Ethereum won’t perform as well as Bitcoin in the current market. This $125,000 prediction isn’t just about Bitcoin beating traditional finance; it’s a bet that Bitcoin will lead the way within the cryptocurrency market itself.

He believes the CLARITY Act isn’t related to reaching the $125,000 income goal. This distinction was intentional and supports the rest of his points in the interview.

On the CLARITY Act: “We Don’t Need to Pander to Politicians”

Hayes directly disagreed with industry opinion when discussing the CLARITY Act. When asked about its immediate impact on the market, he was straightforward: he wants the bill to be vetoed.

Hayes believes the issue isn’t about politics, but about how things are built. The CLARITY Act tries to force the rules of one country onto a global system that’s designed to be open and accessible to everyone. He argues that focusing on laws from a single country – one that represents only a small portion of the world’s population – doesn’t make sense for a technology that’s meant to operate without borders.

Hayes challenges the common thinking in the crypto industry. While most crypto companies have been pushing for clear regulations, believing it’s necessary to attract larger institutions, Hayes disagrees. He believes crypto shouldn’t try to adapt to traditional finance – instead, traditional finance should learn from crypto.

The core of his argument about Bitcoin’s price hinges on its independence. He believes Bitcoin’s value comes from being free from control, so any law regulating it undermines that value. According to Hayes, the CLARITY Act isn’t just unneeded – it actually goes against the very reason people find Bitcoin valuable.

Hayes doubts the bill will pass, pointing out that during the past two years of the Trump administration, every committee hearing has revealed new problems and caused further delays. He believes the CLARITY Act isn’t crucial enough to Republican chances in the upcoming election to motivate the necessary political effort for it to succeed. He bluntly concludes that there’s no need to compromise for the sake of passing such a flawed bill.

Dumping Ethereum, Loading Hyperliquid

He recently invested over $1 million in Hyperliquid and explained his current strategy: he’s selling Bitcoin and Ethereum to purchase assets he anticipates will grow in value more quickly, with most of that money going into Hyperliquid.

Hayes believes Hyperliquid shows strong potential for two key reasons. First, actual users are actively trading with real funds – a standard Hayes uses to evaluate any asset, especially when combined with features like buybacks, burns, or staking rewards. Second, Hyperliquid has proven itself as a reliable place to determine prices, even when traditional markets are closed or during significant economic news, and this is now being recognized by major financial news outlets.

Hayes isn’t shifting away from his belief in Bitcoin with his investment in Hyperliquid; he’s actually reinforcing it. He believes the next most valuable asset will closely mirror Bitcoin’s key feature: open access for anyone, without needing permission or being limited by location. A platform allowing billions of dollars in trades of assets like oil, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, accessible to anyone with internet, is fundamentally different from traditional finance systems. That fundamental difference is what drives his investment.

Arthur Hayes is very direct about Dogecoin: he doesn’t consider it at all. He only focuses on projects that have actual customers, generate revenue, and offer a clear way to provide value.

On Trump and Regulation: Nothing Is Great

When asked about Trump’s crypto pledges, Hayes explained that Trump has acted like a typical politician – making broad promises to please everyone but ultimately falling short on delivering them.

Hayes didn’t focus on specific mistakes, but rather a core idea: every time crypto gains a regulatory victory – like the approval of ETFs, rules for stablecoins, or clear tax guidelines – it becomes more similar to traditional finance (TradFi). Companies like Coinbase and Circle have based their business strategies on the belief that crypto would remain *different* from TradFi. When asked what he’d like to see Trump accomplish for the crypto industry, Hayes gave a surprising answer: nothing at all. He believes that inaction is actually the best outcome.

That stance is more extreme than it appears. While most crypto supporters are seeking helpful regulations, Hayes believes regulation itself is harmful. He suggests that all the industry’s lobbying – the meetings, political donations, and even testimony before Congress – hasn’t just been a waste of time, but has actually set the crypto world back. He argues that any rules, even those that seem positive, limit a system that’s meant to function freely.

From my perspective at Bitcoin Vegas, Hayes consistently emphasized a core principle: Bitcoin’s potential to reach $125,000 hinges on increased liquidity, not legislative action. He believes the CLARITY Act would be detrimental, as attempting to regulate a globally permissionless system through national legislation fundamentally misses the point of the technology. Similarly, he sees Hyperliquid as a leading alternative cryptocurrency precisely because it functions as a highly accessible trading platform without requiring any authorization. Essentially, his argument boils down to this: the true value of crypto lies in its resistance to control. Political approval or regulation isn’t the goal, and never has been.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-05-05 19:26