Although Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing some challenges, their prices are still holding above their average levels from the past 50 days, which is generally a positive indicator. However, the overall cryptocurrency market isn’t performing as well.
The 50-day simple moving average is a popular way to quickly see which direction prices are heading. When the price of a coin goes *above* this average, it often suggests buying interest is increasing. Currently, only 29 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies – including Bitcoin and Ethereum – are trading above their 50-day averages. This indicates that the overall trend is still leaning towards negative.
Things are looking pretty rough in crypto right now, especially if you compare it to how the tech sector is doing. I checked on Monday and only 47 stocks within the Nasdaq 100 were trading above their 50-day moving average – that’s a sign of weakness, and it doesn’t bode well for us either.
The price stability following the Bitcoin sell-off in early June hasn’t yet spread to the rest of the cryptocurrency market. However, there’s a positive sign: Ether, often seen as a leader among alternative cryptocurrencies, has been performing better than Bitcoin recently, suggesting other coins might soon see increased buying activity.
Much hinges on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement this Wednesday, and what signals – if any, considering Chairman Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to offer future outlooks – they give about where rates are headed.
According to Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury, the possibility of another interest rate increase in September is already reflected in current market expectations, making it difficult for any unexpectedly aggressive move by the Federal Reserve to significantly strengthen the dollar.
A significant, unexpected move towards stricter monetary policy that would push Bitcoin’s price down seems unlikely at this point. Bitcoin typically moves in the opposite direction of the Dollar Index (DXY). According to analysts at Marex, upcoming reports on U.S. core inflation and economic growth later this week could cause price swings, particularly since progress on the Clarity Act has been stalled.
A key piece of legislation specifically for crypto has been put on hold. The Senate decided to focus on a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, meaning it’s unlikely the CLARITY Act will be voted on before lawmakers leave for their August break. This delays what many hoped would encourage large institutions to invest in cryptocurrency. Keep an eye on developments!
Today’s signal
Similar to how the VIX measures stock market volatility, the MOVE Index gauges how much bond traders expect interest rates to fluctuate. It looks at price movements in 30-day options tied to U.S. Treasury bonds over a four-week period.
The index increased significantly, moving from 65 to 77 points. If this upward trend continues, it could create challenges for investments considered risky.
U.S. Treasury notes are the foundation of the global financial system. When these markets become unstable, it often leads to stricter lending conditions and discourages investment.
2026-07-28 14:51