Over the last month, Bitcoin options traders have become more optimistic, reducing their bets that the price would fall. This shift happened right before the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, after a period of building up protection against losses in June.
In my research, I’ve been tracking the put/call ratio based on open interest – essentially, a way to gauge market sentiment by comparing bets that prices will go down (puts) versus those betting on price increases (calls). Recently, according to data from Glassnode, this ratio has decreased significantly. It’s moved from around 0.76 in late June to about 0.52 now, indicating a shift in positioning.
More traders are buying call options, suggesting they believe prices will rise instead of protecting against potential declines. Specifically, we’ve seen significant purchases of $70,000 strike calls and bullish call spreads by large investors, reinforcing this expectation of higher prices.
The cost of protecting against potential market drops has decreased significantly for the very short term – currently around 4% for one-week contracts. However, longer-term protection (three to six months) remains at a higher price point of 11% to 12%. This suggests traders are still concerned about risks further down the line this year, but aren’t as worried about immediate, short-term declines.
Volatility—how much traders expect prices to fluctuate—is currently low and fairly consistent, whether looking at short-term (one week at 34.3%) or longer-term (six months at 40.8%) expectations.
The slightly rising slope suggests the market expects a more stable near future compared to the longer term. This is unusual behavior before a major economic announcement, as the curve typically shows the opposite.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Currently, markets predict only about a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, which seems reasonable given current expectations.
This approach offers very little room for error if forecasts or actual results differ from expectations. Being so narrowly positioned tends to exaggerate market swings instead of cushioning their impact.
Bitcoin remained around $65,000 for most of the week, even as major U.S. tech stocks lost $797 billion in value on Thursday. This happened despite several challenges in the crypto space, including bankruptcy filings from Movement Labs and Storj, and announcements that BitMEX and BitMart would be shutting down.
2026-07-27 15:05