Although XRP has had a strong month with significant price gains, investment activity in XRP-based ETFs has been surprisingly low. There were no purchases recorded on ten out of seventeen trading days this month.
XRP is currently trading around $1.10, having remained within a narrow price range for the past month. As it begins August – historically a month of indecision for XRP – indicators suggest that buying interest may be weakening.
XRP’s Best Month Hands Over to Its Flattest One
Looking back at past performance, XRP has consistently seen price increases in July each year since 2020 – that’s six years in a row! So far in 2024, it’s up 6.83% and is on track to continue this trend for a seventh consecutive year.
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XRP has never had a better performing month historically. July consistently shows positive gains, with a typical increase of 6.91% – making it the strongest month overall. Focusing on the median (middle value) is important because it gives a more accurate picture by removing unusually high or low results from past years.
August tends to be an unusually calm month for Bitcoin, with historically small price changes – only up slightly by an average of 0.43%. This is in contrast to other months which typically see more significant gains or losses. Notably, Bitcoin has ended the month with negative returns for the past four years, making it the longest current streak of monthly declines. The market is now entering a similar pattern this August.
As an analyst, I’m seeing a clear lack of investor interest reflected in the fund flows for XRP ETFs. Throughout July, there were multiple periods—including ten out of seventeen trading days and two distinct three-day stretches—where absolutely no money entered these funds. It’s a pretty stark indicator right now.
The most recent period of limited trading occurred from July 22nd to 24th, coinciding with the end of the month. Total demand for XRP during those 17 trading sessions was approximately $12.4 million, while the total value of funds holding it is around $997 million. This suggests that current demand for US spot XRP ETFs hasn’t significantly impacted the market.
Trading volume has also decreased recently. The daily amount traded went down from $14.05 million on July 1st to $8.80 million on July 24th, which is a decrease of roughly 37%.
Trading firms reducing their positions is a clear sign, but it remains to be seen if immediate-delivery purchasers will follow suit.
Exchange Outflows Collapse as Buyers Step Aside
Data from the XRP ledger shows that on July 3rd, there was a net outflow of 205.1 million XRP tokens from cryptocurrency exchanges. This metric measures the change in the number of XRP held by exchanges.
By July 26th, the amount of XRP held on exchanges decreased significantly to -70.2 million, falling by 66%. While XRP is continuing to move away from exchanges, the rate of outflow has slowed to about a third of what it was previously.
Consistent selling pressure often indicates that assets are being gathered up by others. This significant drop suggests people are choosing to hold back from buying, instead of actively selling. It’s another indication that interest is declining.
This aligns with what we’re seeing in ETFs. While no one seems to be selling off their XRP—neither large institutions nor regular traders—there’s also not much new buying interest, especially considering this time of year typically sees little price movement.
The price chart shows exactly what drained the interest.
XRP Price Prediction Hinges on a 20-Cent Range
These price levels are based on a unique analysis. By drawing a Fibonacci retracement tool between the highs and lows of March 17th and May 13th, we get a set of levels that the price is currently following very closely.
XRP’s price action is currently defined by two important levels. The price around $1.01, specifically extending to $1.618, has acted as support for nearly a month, since late June. Conversely, $1.22 has consistently prevented XRP from moving higher ever since it fell below that level in late May.
The price of XRP has been stuck between $1.01 and $1.22 for about a month now. This lack of movement is likely why both institutional investors (like those at ETF firms) and regular buyers have lost interest.
The recent decline in trading activity supports the idea that prices are likely to continue falling. Since late June, fewer shares have been traded, making a price increase improbable unless we see a significant surge in buying.
As I see it, XRP needs to consistently close above $1.22 for three days to really start trending upwards. A move of over 10% like that would probably bring investment back into the market. However, if the price falls below $1.01 – a drop of almost 8% – we could see investors pulling their money out again. Either way, I anticipate some significant price action in the near future – things can’t stay stagnant much longer.
There’s currently no significant increase in selling, which suggests prices might continue to move sideways. Given the historically flat trading patterns in August, we’re likely to see continued range-bound movement unless the price falls below $1.01. That level is the key – a drop below it could trigger a larger sell-off from institutional investors.
2026-07-27 15:08