Why Michael will still be a box-office hit despite the numerous controversies

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Ever since plans for a Michael Jackson biopic were announced in 2022 – though discussions started as early as 2019 – people have been understandably worried about how the film would handle his life and reputation. Those concerns have only increased now that it’s known his nephew, Jaafar Jackson, will be playing Michael in the movie.

From the start, the producer Graham King – known for Bohemian Rhapsody – wanted the film Michael to be a fair and balanced portrayal of Jackson’s life. He aimed to show Jackson as a human being, acknowledging both his strengths and flaws (according to Variety). Initially, the film was planned to begin in 1993, as police were about to search Jackson’s Neverland Ranch following accusations of child sexual abuse.

The film’s original opening and ending, which involved the 1993 accusations against Michael Jackson, were cut. This was reportedly because of a legal agreement with one of his accusers that prevented any depiction or mention of them in a movie. As a result, the film now concludes during Jackson’s Bad tour, before the first allegations surfaced.

Will all the pre-release publicity and the recent issues surrounding Michael Jackson affect how well the movie does in theaters? It seems possible, but most likely it won’t.

Before its release, industry predictions estimated Michael would earn over $65 million in its opening weekend at the US box office (according to Variety). If accurate, this would be the biggest opening weekend ever for a musical biopic, surpassing the current record of $60.2 million held by Straight Outta Compton.

If current predictions hold true, the new film Michael is expected to have a stronger opening weekend in the US than Bohemian Rhapsody did ($51.1 million). Bohemian Rhapsody ultimately earned an impressive $903.7 million globally, with $216.4 million coming from the US, making it the most successful musical biopic ever. It held that record until Oppenheimer surpassed it, and the film also won four Academy Awards.

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Similar to the issues faced by Michael, Bohemian Rhapsody also sparked debate. Critics questioned how the film portrayed Freddie Mercury’s sexuality and whether it accurately presented the timeline of his HIV diagnosis, though the concerns weren’t as widespread.

Although critics weren’t overly harsh – the movie received a 60% rating on Rotten Tomatoes – its box office success proved how much fans loved it. Some movie types seem to do well regardless of reviews, and musical biopics may be one of those genres.

With a movie like Michael, you’ll likely know right away if it’s for you. Neither the reviews (currently 38% on Rotten Tomatoes) nor the ongoing discussions surrounding both the film and Michael Jackson will probably change your mind.

Most critics haven’t liked the new movie, but it’s expected to resonate with Michael Jackson fans, who will likely enjoy it regardless of reviews, according to Paul Dergarabedian, a leading analyst at Comscore.

If you’ve seen the trailer or any of the promotional material for this movie, it’s clear it’s made for Michael Jackson’s existing fans. It’s not a challenging or revealing biography that explores the controversial parts of his life and career.

Successful Michael Jackson projects have happened before. The Broadway musical MJ, which debuted in 2022, has already earned over $300 million. And the 2009 concert film This Is It grossed almost $270 million worldwide, with the majority of that revenue coming from international audiences.

So, Prince, Michael Jackson’s son, is actually one of the producers on this new movie about his dad. But his other kids, Bigi and Paris, weren’t involved. Paris did get to read an early version of the script, and she told The Guardian that a big part of it seems designed to please a certain group of hardcore fans who really want to believe everything was perfect. She thinks they’re going to love it, but it’s definitely geared towards them.

While it’s unlikely to surpass the box office success of Bohemian Rhapsody, the film is expected to earn more than Elvis and Straight Outta Compton. This would make it the second highest-grossing musical biopic ever.

According to Dergarabedian, this film could become one of the most successful musical biopics of all time – a significant feat considering ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ earned almost a billion dollars worldwide. He emphasizes that international audiences will be key to its financial success, as their ticket sales will likely drive the overall worldwide gross, according to Digital Spy.

People around the world will likely be very interested in this film because Michael Jackson was a hugely popular global icon. Its release is also well-timed, coming just before the summer movie season begins next week with The Devil Wears Prada 2.

Lionsgate strategically released this film at a time likely to make it a box office success.

If the current situation develops further, the conversation will probably shift to whether the planned sequel will be made. That sequel would need to address, in some way, the accusations of child abuse that Michael Jackson faced later in life – accusations he and his family always denied.

But for now, don’t be surprised to see Michael dominate the box office this weekend.

Michael is out now in cinemas.

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2026-04-23 19:50