Bitcoin’s Rally: Will It Last or Crash?

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<a href="https://tech-oracle.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> has room to rally, but there’s a catch

What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets are showing optimism again following reports that the U.S. and Iran may agree to a ceasefire as early as Monday. This could lead to the reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin’s price has risen by more than 4% in the last day, reaching almost $70,000 and boosting confidence in the overall crypto market. Several other cryptocurrencies also saw significant gains: the CoinDesk 20 Index and XRP both increased by 4%, ether jumped over 5%, and solana rose by 3%.

Positive momentum is building, supported by optimistic trends in Bitcoin futures, a steady decrease in price fluctuation expectations, and a 0.8% increase in Nasdaq 100 futures.

I’m keeping a close eye on Bitcoin, and it looks like Michael Saylor and his company, Strategy – they’re the biggest public holder of BTC – might be buying more. They already have a huge stash, over 762,000 coins, which shows they’re serious about holding for the long haul. On a different note, OPEC agreed to slightly increase oil production in May, but it seems like more of a gesture to ease some of the pressure on energy prices than a major change.

Together, these point to potential for further upside in crypto.

However, there’s a catch. Reports of ceasefires that have surfaced recently, based on unnamed sources, haven’t been trustworthy – Iran has often denied or disproven them. If this happens again, markets could rapidly change direction.

A crucial point to consider is whether Israel would be obligated to follow a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. If Israel isn’t bound by it, the current optimistic market outlook might not last long.

President Trump warned over the weekend that he would authorize large-scale attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran, and the current attempt to negotiate a ceasefire is being seen as a final attempt to avoid that outcome.

Oil prices are still contributing to rising inflation around the world. Today, Bloomberg News reported that Saudi Arabia has increased the price of its Arab Light crude oil for shipments to Asia in May, reaching a record high compared to regional price standards.

Experts are starting to worry that oil prices are getting dangerously high. Over the past year, prices have jumped 92%, and historically, when that increase hits 100%, the stock market has often crashed. It’s important to be cautious right now.

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Nothing scheduled.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 3.56% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $69,805.19 (24hrs: +4.23%)
  • ETH is up 4.34% at $2,154.80 (24hrs: +5.42%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 3.78% at 1,977.26 (24hrs: +4.06%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.69%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0058% (6.3400% annualized) on Binance

  • DXY is down 0.11% at 99.91
  • Gold futures are up 1.60% at $4,726.10
  • Silver futures are up 1.00% at $73.46
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.55% at 53,413.68
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
  • FTSE 100 closed on Thursday up 0.69% at 10,436.30
  • Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.70% at 5,692.86
  • DJIA closed down 0.13% at 46,504.67
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.31%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,644.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,370.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 46,779.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.02% (unchanged)
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030877 (1.02%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 954 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $31.75
  • Total Fees: 1.61 BTC / $108,359
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 106,600 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.66%

Technical Analysis

  • The chart shows swings in WTI oil’s price since 1986 in the upper pane. The lower pane shows the 12-month rate of change (ROC).
  • Historically, whenever the ROC rises to 100%, stock markets have collapsed. And now, the ROC is approaching that marker again.
  • “Every major market crash since 1987 was preceded by one signal,” Jack Prandelli, a commodity market analyst and author of the Substack-based Merchant’s News said on X.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $171.46 (–0.88%), +3.80% at $177.97 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +2.44% at $18.07
  • MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), +3.10% at $8.98
  • Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), +2.49% at $13.18
  • Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), +1.79% at $16.52
  • CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), +3.30% at $9.08
  • Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%)
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), +2.06% at $37.12
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +4.20% at $94.05

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +4.04% at $124.67
  • SharpLink (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +4.52% at $6.47
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +3.59% at $10.10
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), +3.59% at $1.01
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$71.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.68 million

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2026-04-06 14:34