Why Altcoin Season 2025 Is Like Waiting for a Train That Never Arrives

Well now, dear reader, here we find ourselves in a curious predicament. Bitcoin, that rascally rogue, is prancing about above the $100k mark, while our poor altcoins are languishing in the depths of despair, like a cat stuck in a tree. Investors are scratching their heads, wondering if the fabled altcoin season of 2025 is still on the horizon, or if we’ve all missed the boat and it’s sailed off to greener pastures. They say history has a way of repeating itself, but oh, how many folks insist, “This time it’s different!”—as if the data were a mere suggestion. 🤔

From the lofty heights of Bitcoin dominance to the trickle of institutional inflows, and the Altcoin Season Index sitting at rock bottom, all signs are pointing to a liquidity shift that’s as clear as a summer day. Join me as we delve into the musings of crypto analyst Tracer, who has quite the thesis on this elusive altseason.

Bitcoin Is Soaring, But Alts Are Sleeping? 💤

It’s a right disappointment for the marketers, I tell you! Despite the total market cap lounging at a hefty $3.24 trillion, our altcoins are still dragging their feet, underperforming like a three-legged mule. Data shows that most of these altcoins are down a staggering 80–90% from their all-time highs, while Bitcoin is off breaking records like a show-off at a county fair. The analyst points out that this isn’t a new tale; in past cycles, altseason only kicked off after Bitcoin had firmly planted its flag at the top of the mountain.

The Altcoin Season Index is currently lounging at a dismal 21 out of 100, deep in the territory of “Bitcoin Season.” Historically, these levels have been the harbingers of capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, once Bitcoin shows signs of taking a breather.

Institutions Are Still Going All-In on Bitcoin? 💰

Now, let’s talk about the big fish in the pond. Institutional behavior has taken a sharp turn towards Bitcoin, with billion-dollar buys from Strategy and publicly traded firms hoarding BTC like it’s the last cookie in the jar. Even sovereign institutions are building their own little BTC treasuries.

As we look at the M2 global money supply, a key driver of liquidity, we see a strong correlation with Bitcoin, especially with a 76-day delay. As M2 expands, Bitcoin gobbles up the initial liquidity like a hungry bear. But when this flow gets saturated, history suggests that altcoins often catch the overflow, triggering the true altseason. 🍂

Key Market Signals Flashing the Setup 🔔

Now, let’s take a gander at the market indicators that are waving their arms like a flagman at a train crossing, signaling a classic pre-altseason setup:

• Bitcoin Dominance: Currently hovering at record highs. Past patterns show that when BTC dominance drops below 55%, it’s a clear sign that capital is rotating into alts.
• Trading Volume Divergence: BTC’s volumes have recently dipped compared to previous bull cycles from 2016 and 2021, while alt volumes remain as sluggish as molasses in January. A simultaneous volume spike in alts, along with a BTC dominance drop, will be a major trigger.
• Fear & Greed Index: Sitting neutral at 48, indicating indecision—a common trait during market transitions.

And let’s not forget the geopolitical tension with Iran, which has temporarily frozen liquidity like a popsicle on a hot day. However, such geopolitical dips tend to resolve faster than a cat can lick its paw, often providing golden buying opportunities. 🐱

Curious about BTC’s future? Don’t miss our Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for 2025, 2026-2030!

FAQs

When will the altcoin season start?

The altcoin season of 2025 will kick off once Bitcoin dominance drops below 55, volume flows into alts, and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75.

Should I be buying alts now or wait?

The current metrics suggest we’re in a prime accumulation phase. History favors those who enter before the crowd, not during euphoric runs.

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2025-06-20 10:38