Ethereum (ETH) is trying to break out of a bearish setup, because apparently it didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be on holiday. 🏖️ ETH is trading near $3,016, up a cool 2.3% in 24 hours, and is now less than 2% away from a key level that could flip the script. 🎬 Will it be a rom-com or a horror movie? 🎥
The market is thinner than a Kardashian’s patience going into year-end, so this push is about as well-timed as a fart in a yoga class. 🧘♂️ The question is: Is ETH about to serve the bears a big ol’ plate of humble pie, or is this just another fakeout? 🥧
Bearish Head-And-Shoulders Meets A Roadblock 🚧
ETH is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, which is basically the crypto equivalent of a “Nice try, but no.” 🙅♂️ This bearish structure usually breaks down if the price loses the neckline, which is chilling around $2,809. A confirmed breakdown could target a 20% drop, because why not add a little drama? 🎭
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That drop may not be as easy as convincing your boss you need a raise. 💼
On the cost basis heatmap, there’s a huge supply cluster between $2,804-$2,823, holding about 3.6 million ETH. This is where a bunch of holders decided to set up camp. 🏕️ When the price revisits that zone, these holders are like, “Not today, Satan.” 😈 This cluster is why the Ethereum breakdown risk is still there, but it’s looking about as likely as a snowball’s chance in hell. ❄️
In short, the bearish setup exists, but the bears don’t have a clean path. They’re basically tripping over their own paws. 🐻
Whale Buying Meets 98% Drop In Long-Term Selling 🛒🐳
Two on-chain shifts are now supporting ETH’s attempt to fight back, because even crypto needs a superhero moment. 🦸♂️
Whales (not including exchanges, because they’re too busy being dramatic) increased their holdings from 100.65 million ETH on Dec 28 to 101.05 million ETH today. That’s about 400,000 ETH added, or roughly $1.2 billion bought in under 24 hours. 💸 Someone’s got deep pockets! 👖
This jump coincided with ETH reclaiming ground from the right shoulder of the pattern, because even crypto knows how to accessorize. 👜 When large holders buy into breakdown risk, it often signals confidence, or maybe they just really like the color green. 🟢 At the same time, spent coins from the 365-day to 2-year age band collapsed from 45,846 ETH on Dec 27 to 1,076 ETH today. That’s a 98% drop in older coins moving, because even crypto needs a nap sometimes. 😴
Less movement means long-term holders are no longer selling into strength, because even they’re like, “Eh, I’ll just hold onto this.” 🙌 This removes pressure and lets whales drive the recovery attempt, because someone’s got to be the adult in the room. 🐳 With whales buying and long-term holders stepping back from selling, supply dynamics now favor the upside, or as I like to call it, “the fun side.” 🎢
Ethereum Price Is One Push Away From Beating The Bears 🏋️♂️
ETH trades near $3,016. The first line that matters: $3,069, which is under 2% from the current level. A daily close above $3,069 breaks the short-term bearish control, because even bears need a timeout. 🐻⏰
Above that, the bearish pattern invalidation zone sits at $3,449. That level is the top of the head in the head-and-shoulders, because even crypto knows how to accessorize. 🧢 A daily close above $3,449 cancels the bearish structure and hands control to buyers, because it’s always better to be the buyer than the cryer. 😭
Below, $2,809 stays the neckline, and losing it reopens the 20% downside, because why not add a little more drama? 🎭 And that could push the price under $2,623 first, invalidating the bear-beating setup. For now, ETH sits between the two outcomes, but momentum and supply behavior favor the bulls if they can clear $3,069. 🐂 Let’s see if they’ve got what it takes to make the bears cry into their honey pots. 🐻🍯
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2025-12-29 22:48