The Two Macro Charts That Will Make Your Brain Hurt (But You Can’t Ignore Them!)
Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs bigwig (and, let’s be honest, the type of guy who probably owns a private jet), has graciously decided to bestow upon us the two charts he deems “the most important in all of macro.” He’s like the Oracle of Delphi, except with less prophecy and more data.
The Real Vision CEO and co-founder—who, by the way, has an audience of 1.2 million followers on X (not to brag or anything)—explains that aging demographics are pushing governments to borrow more money to keep the GDP moving and to pay off the mountains of debt that seem to multiply faster than rabbits. If only they could print money like they print excuses.
Pal’s first chart compares the US labor force participation rate with the inverted chart of US government debt as a percentage of GDP. It’s a bit like comparing apples to… well, more debt. Check it out below.
Now, onto chart two. This one compares the U.S. Federal Reserve’s net liquidity to the “normal” chart of US government debt as a percentage of GDP. Spoiler alert: it’s not normal at all. It’s like trying to make sense of a spaghetti mess on a Sunday night. See for yourself:
According to Pal (and his charming, somewhat sarcastic delivery), these charts reveal a macroeconomic apocalypse waiting to happen. The end result? Currency debasement. How quaint. Here’s Pal’s take:
“With debt over 100% of GDP, there’s simply not enough cash flow to cover the debt, so they ‘print’ more via the Fed’s Net Liquidity. This gets forced onto bank balance sheets through regulation. Classic.”
“This process debases the currency and lowers the denominator, thus making scarce assets look like they’re worth more. In other words, it’s all smoke and mirrors.”
“And here’s the twist: Crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is the life raft that not only offsets the annual 8% debasement but actually gains value due to adoption effects. Bitcoin to the rescue!”
For the grand finale, Pal believes that AI and robotics will swoop in like a caped superhero to save the day. Their job? To handle the burden of aging populations and help mitigate the economic challenges we’re about to face. You know, typical superhero stuff—fighting economic decay, one algorithm at a time.
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2025-06-05 20:01