The Astounding Job Market Plot Twist—Analysts Baffled! 🚀

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What to know:

  • The U.S. conjured up 177,000 new jobs in April, considerably more than the meager 130,000 foreseen by economists (who were presumably consulting their tea leaves upside down).
  • The unemployment rate clung to 4.2%, as rigidly as a bureaucrat to their lunch break. Nobody gasped. Everybody nodded knowingly.
  • Bitcoin briefly forgot how to be exciting, drifting aimlessly to $96,700 as the jobs news unfolded. Somewhere, a crypto influencer shook their fist at the sky. đź’¸

Fresh from last month’s Liberation Day tariff announcements—which sent markets tumbling, investors panicking, and supply chain professionals journeying to regions of confusion normally reserved for people assembling flat-pack furniture—the U.S. job market appears to have ducked all sharp objects and come out grinning.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a group not generally known for spontaneous interpretive dance, reported that the job tally leapt to 177,000 in April. Analysts, who had confidently predicted 130,000, were last seen muttering something about “margin of error” and “cosmic interference.” For the March numbers, which were previously 228,000 then magically revised to 185,000, nobody tried to explain the logic, probably for everyone’s safety.

The unemployment rate parked itself at 4.2%, which is one of those statistical moves so perfectly average that it almost feels philosophical.

Bitcoin, having practiced being dramatic the last fortnight, responded with a polite yawn—ticking down to $96,700. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures caught a whiff of optimism, nudged each other, and awkwardly rose 0.7%. Professionals in both camps declared this “meaningful,” which is code for “let’s see how long this lasts.”

As for the Fed: the report probably tossed a bucket of cold water on dreams of immediate rate cuts. Market wizards had ruled out May and pinned their hopes on something magical in June or July (the FedWatch tool put success at 60% and 90%, which is either reassuring or deeply concerning, depending on your trust in online calculators).

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield inched up to 4.27%, which was enough to get fixed-income enthusiasts quietly excited. (Some even smiled.)

Turning to wages: average hourly earnings rose at 0.2% in April, somewhat less stunning than the 0.3% predicted, and precisely the level needed to leave economists drafting essays about “steady moderation.” Year-over-year, pay rose 3.8%—a number so close to expectations that it nearly sent the universe into a yawn-induced singularity.

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2025-05-02 16:27