Polymarket Faces Japan’s Iron‑Clad Gambling Law-Will It Crash or Conquer?

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Polymarket Bets on Japan Despite Regulatory Roadblocks

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Mike Eidlin leads Polymarket’s Japan expansion efforts as head of local operations.
Polymarket argues its event contracts are information markets, not casino-style betting, to regulators.
Japanese authorities regulate approved betting sectors tightly, posing challenges for Polymarket’s market entry.

Polymarket is moving deeper into Japan despite strict gambling laws and a regulatory process that may take years to resolve. The prediction market platform recently appointed Mike Eidlin, Jupiter’s head of Japan, to lead its local expansion efforts, aiming to build a foundational presence in the country while regulators debate how prediction markets should operate under Japanese law.

As per a Bloomberg report, the push comes at a critical time for Polymarket as the company looks beyond offshore crypto traders and election-related activity for future growth. Trading activity has slowed in recent months, increasing pressure to expand into larger international markets. 

Japan presents opportunity and risk

Japan remains an attractive market for Polymarket because of its active retail trading culture and growing crypto user base. However, the country also enforces some of the strictest gambling laws in Asia. Japanese authorities tightly regulate approved betting sectors such as horse racing and lotteries, while most forms of online gambling remain illegal under the country’s Penal Code.

That creates a difficult path for Polymarket as regulators decide whether prediction markets belong under financial products or gambling rules. The company argues that its event contracts operate as information markets rather than casino-style betting. However, officials may still view users placing money on uncertain outcomes as a form of gambling.

There has also been greater pressure from the regulators in recent times. The Japanese government put more stringent controls on online gambling operations in 2025, while financial regulators kept examining the regulations concerning cryptocurrency. Thus, prediction markets continue to operate in a legal grey area.

Building presence before approval

Rather than rushing into a full launch, Polymarket appears to be building an early presence in Japan while regulators continue reviewing prediction markets. The company’s Japanese X account has already attracted more than 53,000 followers. Additionally, users currently track more than 250 Polymarket contracts tied to Japanese elections and Bank of Japan policy decisions.

Reports also suggest the platform could introduce a view-only version for Japanese users. Such a model would allow users to monitor contracts and market odds without placing trades directly. That approach could help Polymarket grow brand recognition in Japan while avoiding regulatory conflicts before formal approval arrives.

Global pressure continues rising

Polymarket’s expansion plans in Japan also depend heavily on its regulatory position in the United States. The company continues working toward approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after previously settling allegations tied to unregistered derivatives trading. Progress in the US could strengthen Polymarket’s argument that prediction markets should operate under financial rules rather than gambling laws.

At the same time, regulators in several countries continue increasing pressure on prediction market platforms. Brazil recently moved to block platforms tied to sports, politics, and entertainment events. Ukraine also restricted access to Polymarket after authorities classified the service as unlicensed gambling. Further, India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) also recently warned that VPN providers facilitating access to prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi would be subjected to strict legal consequences.

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2026-05-22 11:58