Kalshi vs. Polymarket: A Tale of Two Prediction Markets 🎩💸

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Markets

What to know:

  • Kalshi captured 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector from September 11 to 17, according to Dune-because nothing says “democracy” like gambling on democracy.
  • Kalshi’s weekly trading volume exceeded $500 million with an average open interest of around $189 million, surpassing Polymarket’s figures. 🎲
  • Polymarket acquired regulated derivatives exchange QCX to re-enter the U.S. market (apparently, third time’s the charm?) and launched earnings-based markets with Stocktwits.

Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory. One can almost hear the collective sigh of relief from those who find the thrill of gambling on political outcomes more palatable than actual politics.

From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million. Truly, a spectacle of modern capitalism.

Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.” Or, as we like to call it, *hustle vs. hold-on-for-dear-life*.

Polymarket’s longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods-essentially the financial equivalent of a clingy ex. 💔

This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi’s users are trading more often, while Polymarket’s positions tend to sit. One might say Kalshi is the caffeinated squirrel to Polymarket’s sloth. 🐿️

Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again. Because nothing says “trust us” like a corporate makeover and a new PR slogan.

It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time. Because who needs sleep when you can bet on corporate drama 24/7?

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2025-09-21 03:05