Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle on the Verge of Collapse? Ran Neuner Weighs In!

As the winds of 2026 stir the crypto sea, uncertainty begins to cast its long shadow over the market’s psyche. 🌪️

In a recent episode of the Paul Barron Network, the ever-enthusiastic Crypto Banter’s own Ran Neuner took center stage, pontificating not about price predictions but about one of crypto’s most revered mantras: the four-year Bitcoin cycle. Ah, the cycle-like a well-worn coat that no longer fits! 🧥

Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Still Driving the Market?

Neuner boldly asserted that the halving-a supposed beacon of hope-was never truly the driving force behind Bitcoin’s soaring escapades. No, my friends, it seems liquidity has always been the real star of this show! 🎭

“The four-year cycle was always dead and we followed a liquidity cycle,” he declared, perhaps while gesturing dramatically for effect.

He elaborated that past bull runs didn’t dance to the halving’s tune but rather waltzed along with global liquidity and business cycles. As Bitcoin’s stature has grown, the halving’s influence on supply has faded like a poorly written script. 📉

Bitcoin Approaches a Critical Moment

In a comparison as rich as cream, Neuner likened today’s Bitcoin predicament to the tumultuous days of 2021. After a dramatic plunge, the market languished in a sideways shuffle before making its next bold move.

Now, he posits, Bitcoin finds itself at yet another crossroads. A vigorous recovery could restore the lofty uptrend, while failure may send it spiraling toward long-term support levels, like a bad actor in a tragic play. Either way, the coming move will echo through the months ahead. 🎭

Macro Shocks Remain the Biggest Risk

A particularly sobering observation from the discussion was how swiftly the crypto realm can pivot to risk-off during times of broader market distress. Topics such as the credibility of the Federal Reserve, political pressures, or unexpected tariffs could rattle even the stoutest of investors. 🎢

To put it succinctly, Neuner mused: “We’re sound money until until until we’re not and it’s risk-off mode.” When the storm hits, Bitcoin has a disconcerting tendency to slip down alongside stocks. ⚡

Bitcoin vs Ethereum: What to Watch

Neuner shared a nugget of wisdom. When Bitcoin struts its strength and ascends higher, Ethereum usually shines brighter. Conversely, when Bitcoin stumbles, it tends to hold its ground more defensively, like a well-trained guard dog. 🐕

Our host added that Ethereum might still bask in the glow of growth through tokenization, stablecoins, and on-chain settlements, serving as a bellwether for rekindled confidence. 🔔

A Different Type of Crypto Buyer

The video also highlighted a notable shift in who’s roaming the crypto markets. ETFs are ushering in institutions and affluent investors who now see crypto as a piece of the pie rather than a fleeting whim. 🥧

This evolution could mean the end of feverish hype cycles, paving the way for steadier demand and a far more nuanced approach to the next bull market. 🐂

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FAQs

What would confirm that Bitcoin is entering a liquidity-driven cycle instead of a halving-led one?

Clear signals would include Bitcoin reacting more strongly to interest-rate changes, central bank liquidity, and global risk appetite than to post-halving supply shifts. Sustained moves tied to macro policy decisions would reinforce this view. 📈

Who is most affected if crypto markets stay closely tied to global liquidity?

Retail traders face higher volatility around macro events, while institutional investors may benefit from clearer correlations with traditional assets. Long-term holders may need to watch economic indicators as closely as on-chain metrics. 🧐

What could trigger the next major directional move for Bitcoin and Ethereum?

Key catalysts include shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, changes in inflation expectations, or broader equity market trends. Regulatory clarity around crypto ETFs and on-chain finance could also influence momentum. 💡

How might this market structure change crypto investment strategies going forward?

Investors may place greater emphasis on portfolio allocation, risk management, and macro timing rather than short-term cycle trading. This could favor disciplined, longer-horizon approaches over speculative momentum bets. ⏳

2026-01-14 15:18