Fed’s Big Surprise: No Rate Hikes, But Everything Else is Falling Apart!

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What to know:

  • Bitcoin is as flat as my energy levels after reading this: it stayed the same after the Fed kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% in June.
  • The Fed, in its infinite wisdom, downgraded its growth expectations. Apparently, we’re in for a slower economy and higher inflation. Yay!
  • The Fed dot plot (that’s the financial equivalent of a treasure map, if you ask me) shows fewer rate cuts ahead. Because why not?

Well, surprise, surprise—just as we all expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve didn’t do anything shocking and left interest rates at a totally unexciting 4.25%-4.50% in June.

According to their press release (which I’m sure was written with all the enthusiasm of a tax audit), “Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.” Translation: “We’re just coasting until things get worse, but don’t worry, we’re not panicking… yet.” Also, the unemployment rate is still low, but inflation? Yeah, that’s still high. No one’s talking about it, but it’s there, lurking like a forgotten New Year’s resolution.

The Fed’s quarterly projections came with a few surprises, but nothing really exciting. They now think GDP will grow at a leisurely 1.4% this year instead of 1.7%, which, let’s be real, is like saying your plants will grow at 1.4% instead of 1.7%… are you really going to notice that? Spoiler alert: You won’t.

They’ve also raised their inflation projections. Yes, it’s still going to be high. PCE inflation is now forecasted at 3%—because who doesn’t love a little more inflation in their lives? And core PCE? A nice 3.1%. It’s like the Fed is giving inflation a bonus this year.

But the fun doesn’t stop there—unemployment is expected to creep up to 4.5%. Apparently, it’s only a matter of time before we all start wearing ‘Will Work for Bitcoin’ signs on street corners.

Bitcoin didn’t do much either. It hovered at around $104,000, probably because even cryptocurrency is too tired to care at this point. It’s like, “Yeah, I’m holding steady. Don’t expect me to solve anything.” Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decided to pretend like everything was fine and went up. They’ll probably regret that later.

So, what’s next? Well, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time (18:30 UTC). Let’s all sit tight and wait for him to either provide some clarity or, more likely, make us feel like we’re in a fever dream of economic uncertainty. Should be a blast!

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2025-06-18 21:24