Fear, Greed, and the Great Crypto Gamble

by

Well, now, if you’ll excuse me, the crypto market’s got the jitters worse than a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. They’ve tumbled into what they call “Extreme Fear,” which is just a fancy way of saying folks are about as calm as a squirrel at a nut shortage.

Now, some bright souls figure this is the time to “buy the dip,” which sounds clever until you realize it’s like buying a ticket to a sinking ship and hoping the lifeboats are made of gold. One analyst, however, suggests that extreme caution might be more of a red flag than a green light-though he probably says that to keep his job.

“Bitcoin Going to Zero” Searches Reach All-Time High Amid Extreme Market Fear

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, that nifty little barometer of sanity, is reading a chilly 9. That’s not a temperature-it’s more like the score you get when your dog walks on your piano and you’re too stunned to yell. It’s a slight improvement from 8 yesterday, which is about as exciting as watching a teakettle boil in a library.

Still, the market clings to its “Extreme Fear” label like a barnacle to a ship. Meanwhile, Google Trends data shows searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have hit record highs. You’d think they were tracking the last train out of Dodge instead of a cryptocurrency.

And yet, some analysts insist extreme pessimism is a golden opportunity. A classic case of “buy when there’s blood in the streets,” though I reckon the streets in question might just be paved with dollar bills these days.

You wish you bought during the FTX collapse?

Here’s your second chance-same snake oil, half the bottle!

– Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) February 18, 2026

Santiment, those data diviners, say that when prices nosedive, folks start predicting doomsday like it’s their job. And when you hear folks talking about crypto going to zero, that’s not a red flag-it’s a white flag with a note that says, “I surrender, take my wallet.”

“And once you see the predictions of doom for cryptocurrency, it’s generally the best time to officially buy the dip,” Santiment stated.

The same greed that stopped people selling at $126K is going to stop them from buying the bottom.

At the $BTC top you refused to sell because you were convinced $150K was coming. Greed.

At the bottom you’ll refuse to buy because you’re convinced $30K is coming. Also greed.…

– Ardi (@ArdiNSC) February 18, 2026

Bitcoin’s Best Returns Came During Extreme Greed, Not Fear, Data Shows

Enter Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, who says buying Bitcoin during extreme fear is “NOT the best call.” He’s got the data to back it up, which is impressive considering most of us rely on gut feelings and Wikipedia for financial advice.

“Buying BTC in ‘Extreme Fear’ is NOT the best call,” he said.

Puckrin argues that when the Fear & Greed Index drops below 25, the average 90-day return is a paltry 2.4%. That’s about the same return as a savings account if you ignore inflation and the fact that banks are now using the money to build luxury spas for shareholders.

By contrast, buying during “Extreme Greed” has historically netted 95% returns in 90 days. That’s like buying a loaf of bread and selling it as a rare cheese. Puckrin adds that the Fear & Greed Index is “backward-looking,” which is a polite way of saying it’s a rearview mirror for the future.

“The F&G index is nothing but a backward-looking momentum indicator. It’s less relevant for predicting returns,” he added.

Critics, of course, argue Puckrin’s 90-day timeframe is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. One wag noted that 12 months after “extreme fear,” Bitcoin’s averaged 300% gains. So, if you’re in it for the long haul, maybe it’s worth the wait-or the therapy bills.

“You can see that 12 months after extreme fear-Bitcoin has averaged over 300% gains historically. The F&G index isn’t a 90-day signal. It’s a 12-month accumulation alert. You’re not supposed to feel rich immediately after buying extreme fear,” a user replied.

In the end, whether this is opportunity or folly depends on your patience and your ability to ignore the siren song of “this time it’s different.” Or, as Twain might say, “Buy low, sell high, and pray the ground doesn’t open up.”

Read More

2026-02-19 10:01