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What to know:
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
In the world of finance, there are two significant trends currently shaping the landscape. Firstly, there’s a sense of unease in global bond markets. Secondly, and equally important, is Bitcoin’s (BTC) consistent performance above the $100,000 mark.
As a researcher, I’ve observed an intriguing trend over the past 11 days: Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently maintained levels above a certain threshold, following a significant surge to approximately $75,000 in early April. Some might interpret this as a potential sign of an uptrend reaching exhaustion, but it could equally be seen as the market adjusting and stabilizing at the six-figure mark.
Consider this: Initially, when Bitcoin reached $100,000, many individuals might have thought, “This is unbelievable! It’s too expensive” and either chose not to invest or sold their existing holdings. However, as the price remains steady, it becomes less extraordinary in people’s perception and gradually feels like a standard figure. Essentially, don’t be taken aback if there’s an increase in buying activity for goods linked with Bitcoin.
On Monday, confidence soared following the announcement by Strategy, the leading Bitcoin-holding company listed on the stock exchange, that they had purchased approximately 7,630 Bitcoins at an average cost exceeding $103,000 per coin.
According to Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, this strong purchasing strategy is designed to establish Bitcoin’s minimum value at $100K or more as a new foundation. The influx of funds into the ETFs mirrors this robustness.
As a crypto investor, it appears that the surge in Ether’s (ETH) price is primarily fueled by grassroots demand rather than large-scale institutional investments. This could be an indication of increasing retail involvement and a potential divergence in the performance between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (altcoins), suggesting a possible decoupling.
Recently, the market value of Ethena Labs’ artificial stablecoin, USDe, has significantly increased by 35% to reach a whopping $5 billion within a week and a half. According to CoinDesk, this growth is evident. The token keeps its value tied to the U.S. dollar using an automated delta-hedging approach that involves shorting bitcoin and ether perpetual futures contracts to counteract any fluctuations in their prices.
Some market analysts are noticing similarities between the recent surge in Ethena’s ENA token and the dramatic increase in Bitcoin’s market cap before the wider market experienced significant volatility in November. Back then, the ENA token saw a five-fold rise to $1.25. We’ll have to wait and see if history will repeat itself.
On Monday, the GENUIS Act received approval from the U.S. Senate, moving it closer to its final phase. This legislation, as stated by Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget in an email, could substantially increase market confidence and offer much-needed clarity for both issuers and investors. However, it does not fully address offshore stablecoin issuers such as Tether, which continue to exert a substantial influence on global liquidity.
For domestic issuers, compliance with the new regulations will likely result in higher costs, potentially leading to increased consolidation within the market and benefiting well-funded players capable of meeting the stricter requirements.
In established financial markets, interest rates on long-term bonds are climbing up worldwide, which suggests increasing worries about the long-term solvency of national debts. For instance, the yield on Japan’s 30-year government bonds reached an unprecedented peak above 3%, a notable increase to keep in mind.
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on launching “The Watchdog,” a 400,000-ARB bounty program that would reward community sleuths for uncovering misuse of the hundreds of millions in grants, incentives and service budgets the DAO has deployed. Voting ends May 23.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on a constitutional AIP to upgrade Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova to ArbOS 40 “Callisto”, bringing them in line with Ethereum’s May 7 Pectra upgrade. The proposal schedules activation for June 17. Voting ends on May 29.
- May 20, 12 p.m.: Lido to hist its 28th node operator community call.
- May 21: Maple Finance has teased at an upcoming announcement on the future of asset management.
- May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a livestream
- May 22: Official Trump to announce its “next Era” at the day of the dinner for its largest holders.
- Unlocks
- May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $22.28 million.
- June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $169.82 million.
- June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $11.24 million.
- June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.16 million.
- June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $58.02 million.
- Token Launches
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- TokenFi is facilitating what it calls the first-ever tokenization of a consumer AI robot, the Floki Minibot M1, giving the platform a unique real-world use and a strong narrative in the increasingly crowded market for RWA applications.
- The Floki Minibot M1 presale and tokenization go live May 23, the same day TokenFi debuts its RWA tokenization module, aligning a high-profile product drop with core platform functionality — a powerful driver for platform visibility and utility for TokenFi’s TOKEN.
- TokenFi’s association with Rice Robotics, which works with companies like Nvidia, Softbank and 7-Eleven Japan, lends legitimacy to the project’s RWA ambitions and strengthens long-term investor confidence in TOKEN, which sits at a $60 million market capitalization as of Tuesday.
- TokenFi will benefit from an upcoming RICE token airdrop to Floki and TokenFi holders, offering direct value accrual and potentially incentivizing new buyers and stakers of TOKEN in anticipation of eligibility.
- The TokenFi team said Monday it would be the title sponsor of the West Indies cricket team’s tour of Ireland 2025, bringing its brand to viewers globally through broadcast partners like TNT Sports, Supersport and Fancode, giving the token a visibility boost among retail audiences.
Derivatives Positioning
- Bitcoin CME futures open interest has risen to the highest in three months in a sign of renewed uptick in institutional activity. ETH’s open interest has jumped to its highest since March.
- Still, positioning in both markets remains light compared with December.
- On offshore exchanges, perpetual funding rates for major coins remain below an annualized 10%. It’s a sign that while traders are using leverage to take bullish bets, the market is far from being frothy.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH calls continue to trade pricier than puts across timeframes, indicating a bullish bias.
- Block flows on Paradigm have been mixed, with calendar spreads both bought and sold.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.51% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $105,181.50 (24hrs: +2.12%)
- ETH is unchanged at $2,519.42 (24hrs: +4.46%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.42% at 3,171.22 (24hrs: +2.84%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 3.04%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0074% (8.1227% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.2% at 100.22
- Gold is up 0.13% at $3,233.79/oz
- Silver is up 0.31% at $32.45/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 37,529.49
- Hang Seng closed +1.49% at 23,681.48
- FTSE is up 0.5% at 8,742.80
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,440.56
- DJIA closed on Monday +0.32% at 42,792.07
- S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,963.60
- Nasdaq closed unchanged at 19,215.46
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.29% at 25,971.93
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.56% at 2,638.56
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bp at 4.46%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.29% at 5,965.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.4% at 21,440.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 42,870.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 63.86 (-0.04%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02401 (0.29%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 853 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $54.3
- Total Fees: 6.87 BTC / $717,919
- CME Futures Open Interest: 157,875 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 32.4 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 9.17%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows the XMR/BTC ratio has broken above the swing high resistance from September 2024, confirming a bullish trend reversal higher.
- The pattern points to continued monero (XMR) outperformance relative to bitcoin.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $413.42 (+3.41%), up 0.4% at $415.06 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $263.99 (-0.93%), up 1.11% at $266.93
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$31.49 (+3.01%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.32 (+0.68%), up 0.49% at $16.40
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.97 (-1.97%), up 0.88% at $9.04
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.85 (+0.65%), up 0.55% at $10.91
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.84 (+0.61%), up 0.51% at $9.89
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.13 (+0.72%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $43.27 (+5.85%), up 4% at $45
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33.91 (-4.21%), up 3.21% at $35
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: $667.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $42.41 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.19 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $13.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.54 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.47 million
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The annualized premium or basis in ETH futures trading on the CME is close to topping the 10% mark for the first time since early February.
- It shows traders are taking leveraged bullish bets on ETH.
- The widening basis could entice cash and carry arbitrage traders, leading to accelerated inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs.
In the Ether
Siamak Masnavi, Francisco Rodrigues, Jamie Crawley contributed reporting.
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2025-05-20 14:53