Draftkings Teeters: 25% Looted by Prediction Geniuses!

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Recent data reveals that a staggering quarter of Draftkings’ sportspounding feast has been politely stripped away by a legion of stealthily regulated prediction marketplaces.

Prediction Fleas Swarm the $14 B Sports Betting Pantheon

This season, armed with the cunning of Kalshi and a handful of other cryptic competitors, the prediction tableaux have leapt into sports, claiming roughly 90% of all fee-generating transactions.
The Financial Times whispers that Kalshi’s annual sports proceeds hover around $1.3 billion-nearly a quarter of Draftkings’ cherished sportsbook coffers.

Kalshi’s fan base swelled from a modest 600,000 at the dawn of 2025 to over 5.1 million by early 2026. Meanwhile, the grand tapestry of prediction trading unfurled to a staggering $63.5 billion in 2025 (a leap from $15.8 billion the year before). Those figures emerged amidst Bitcoin.com’s news that sportsbooks were mercilessly besieged by prediction flair during the Super Bowl of last season.

The American sports betting ocean carries roughly $14 billion yearly, and prediction markets siphon away about $8 billion from the traditional bouncers. In the lone roar of the Super Bowl, predictions drew $630 million in wagerage – a whopping 80% of the yearly growth chorus.

Draftkings boasted a $6.05 billion revenue haul in 2025, up 27% from the year before, and a sportsbook handle of $53.6 billion. Sportsbook and iGaming merged candies make up 93% of the total. Yet their glowing 2026 guidance of $6.5-$6.9 billion fell shy of the ~$7.2 billion astrologists had pointed out, sending their stock plummeting 13.5%.

Over the past twelve moons, igamingfuture.com acknowledges that Draftkings, together with Flutter (Postmaster of Fanduel), has dropped more than half its market value. Executives cheerfully dismiss the threat as harmless and only affecting crocheted customers at the margins. Draftkings has meanwhile launched a prediction armada into 38 states, eyeing a tentative $10 billion worth of opportunity.

The stalwart difference lies in the shackles of governance. Prediction markets dance beneath the federal baton of the CFTC, granting freedom across California, Texas, and beyond-states where sportsbooks are forbidden to play. In contrast, sportsbooks, with their state choreographies, are legal only in 39 states plus D.C.

Nonetheless, the legal drama continues as states stage contests across the domain. Prediction mashups, akin to peer-to-peer Tupperwares, levy transaction fees and never stake a house. Traditional sportsbooks, the house-banked dictators, typically whales 7-10% of wagering.

Advocates hail the exchange model for its dazzling transparency and for steering clear of monopoly-esque thwarting of winning accounts. Yet, a dozen states remain wary, and some powerhouses curb endorsements of these markets.

As the annual sportsbook volume marches toward a staggering $220 billion, the friction between state-driven sportsbooks and the federally sanctioned prediction empires will only intensify. Draftkings, while still in the profitable realm and diversely humming, is finding the playing field shifting beneath its boots.

FAQ ❓

  • How much of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue does the prediction brigade munch?
    Oops!
    Kalshi’s $1.3 billion sports income is about one-quarter of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue.
  • Why do prediction markets sprint across the country?
    Because the fickle CFTC allows them to creep into those states where sportsbooks are banned.
  • What’s the size of the U.S. sports gambling ocean?
    Roughly $14 billion each year.
  • Draftkings’ total revenue in 2025?
    It boasted $6.05 billion.

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2026-02-17 01:37