Dollar’s Rise? Bitcoin’s Downfall? 😏

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Out on the vast plains of the financial frontier—where fortunes shift like desert sands—a curious tale unfolds. The US Dollar Index, that stalwart measure of America’s greenback against a motley crew of currencies, is stirring once more. Analysts, those modern-day augurs poring over charts and numbers, whisper that the dollar might be nearing the bottom of its long, weary journey. They foresee a bounce on the horizon, a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. 😏

Yet, as the dollar gathers its strength, there’s a twist in the tale. Bitcoin, the digital renegade with a knack for defying gravity, has historically danced to a peculiar, inverse rhythm with the dollar. When one climbs, the other seems doomed to fall—like two old rivals locked in an eternal duel, each vying to outdo the other. 💾

DXY’s Dance: A Death Cross on the Horizon

Word on the digital grapevine, shared by the folks at Barchart via the social media bazaar formerly known as Twitter, tells a gripping yarn: On the weekly chart, the DXY is on the cusp of forming what traders call a “death cross.” This is when the short-term moving average dares to cross below its long-term counterpart—a bearish omen that sends shivers down the spine of even the hardiest investor. But here’s the rub: History has seen this dark signal twice before (in 2018 and 2021), and in both instances it marked not an end, but a turning point—the very bottom from which the dollar would eventually rise. đŸ»

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Meanwhile, from the hallowed halls of Swissblock, Henrik Zeberg—a sagacious head macroeconomist with a twinkle in his eye—echoes this sentiment. In his latest video, he laments that many have cast aspersions on the dollar, branding it bearish without due cause. Zeberg notes that the momentum indicator (RSI) is showing higher lows—a subtle sign that the downtrend might be losing its steam. “There might be a short-term bounce or at least a pause before the inevitable,” he muses, though he warns that one final dip could await before the market turns around—perhaps come September. đŸ€”

“When we see everybody now starting to become very bearish of the dollar, it may be a time where we should start to think where could we potentially see the bottom,” he said.

Across the financial landscape, Andrea Lisi—a Chartered Financial Analyst with a discerning eye—offers his own take. He argues that concerns about the dollar’s weakness are rooted in the movements of the DXY index. However, he contends that the Nominal Broad US Dollar Index (Nominal DXY) paints a truer picture of the dollar’s fortunes. “Currently, the Nominal DXY holds steadfast within its bullish channel, with key support at the 120 level. We’ve yet to witness a decisive breach below this threshold, suggesting that any talk of near-term weakness might be somewhat overstated,” Lisi declares with a knowing smirk. đŸ”„

“Currently, the Nominal DXY remains firmly within its established bullish channel, with key support identified at the 120 level. Importantly, we have yet to see a decisive breach below this threshold, suggesting that any near-term weakness may be overstated,” Lisi stated.

But while the dollar might be on the mend, the tale takes a somber turn for Bitcoin. BeInCrypto has long chronicled the curious inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and Bitcoin’s fortunes. In bygone days—when tensions between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and President Trump ran high, or when broader economic forces pressed the dollar downward—Bitcoin often rode a wave of optimism to new heights. It’s as if the two were locked in an eternal dance—a pas de deux of opposites. 💃

Thus, if the dollar rises, Bitcoin might well be forced to descend. Moreover, the winds of change blow from several quarters: increased whale-to-exchange flows, elevated Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), and a souring Altcoin-Bitcoin correlation all point to potential selling pressure and a volatile market. In short, Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run might be due for a correction sooner rather than later. đŸ˜±

Adding to the gloom, historical data from CoinGlass suggests that the third quarter has traditionally been a lean period for Bitcoin, with average returns trailing those of other quarters. With seasonal trends converging with the dollar’s potential rebound, Bitcoin might have to brace itself for a challenging chapter ahead. In the ever-unpredictable saga of finance, only time will reveal whether this twist is but a temporary setback or the harbinger of deeper turmoil. đŸ€·â€â™‚ïž

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2025-07-25 11:48