Key Takeaways
What does crypto winter mean for the average market participant? 🤷♂️
It means investor confidence is shrinking, and is reflected in reduced market confidence and steady price declines across the market. 😅
Could experts be wrong about the incoming bear market? 🤔
It is possible, but as things stand, unlikely. Bitcoin bulls will need to perform heroics to rescue the market in the next 2-3 weeks, to prove the experts wrong. 🦁
Is crypto winter upon us? Over the past week alone, $1.227 billion worth of positions in the crypto futures market have been liquidated. 💸
These figures accounted for just the two leading assets, Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH]. 🧨
Glassnode data showed that ZCash [ZEC] had the third-highest liquidations over the past week, at $193.77 million. Who knew ZCash was a meme? 🧠
The chart above shows that the Open Interest behind Bitcoin has fallen from $90.24 billion on the 10th of October to $66.54 billion at the time of writing. Looks like a sad face. 😢
In a post on X, crypto analyst Maartun observed that the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were down $3.29 billion from their peaks. This was their second-highest drawdown since launch. A bad day at the office? 🏢
What to expect in a crypto winter
Bitcoin fell below $90k in recent hours, marking its lowest level in nearly seven months. Alongside the declining Open Interest, spot trading volumes for crypto assets are also expected to fall as a bear market seems to be upon us. 🐻
A decline in ETF volume and investor interest will be another sign of a bear market. Not the animal, the market. 🧠
The total crypto market capitalization fell to $3.04 trillion, a retest of a trendline support that stretched back to October 2023. A Black Friday sale for your savings? 🛍️
A 28.9% drop in the crypto market cap in 45 days was alarming and another ominous sign of a potential crypto winter. 🌑
The altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum) barely made a new high this cycle, either. It stalled at $1.13 trillion, a high from 2021. The altcoin performance this cycle helped explain the miserable sentiment around crypto. 🥲
Bitcoin’s next move, and the potential start of a bear market
Benjamin Cowen explained the importance of the 200-day Moving Average for Bitcoin. Unless it is reclaimed quickly, a bear market would be highly likely to commence. 🧙♂️
At the time of writing, the 200DMA for BTC was at $110.4k. This “macro lower high” would eventually lead to BTC visiting $60k-$70k in 2026, the 200-week moving average. The future is bleak. 😭
In contrast to these bearish expectations, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics firm Alphractal, posted that some Alpha signals still didn’t show that an all-time high for this cycle has been achieved. 🏖️
To achieve a new high, the next 2-3 weeks would need to see an explosive bullish move, warned Wedson. Or maybe just a miracle. 🙏
As even the experts agreed, no one has a crystal ball. It is almost impossible to predict the next move, but it is possible to prepare for outcomes based on what happened in previous cycles. 🧠
We are not definitively in a bear market, but winter was certainly advancing on crypto town. The next three weeks, and the potential bounce toward $110k, are developments investors will watch out for. ❄️
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2025-11-18 18:00