Coinbase Executive Warns: Bitcoin Rally Still Hinges on Fed and Oil

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Coinbase Executive Warns: <a href="https://tech-oracle.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Rally Still Hinges on Fed and <a href="https://bbg-news.com/brent">Oil</a>

Despite the recent easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Coinbase’s David Duong believes Bitcoin’s price recovery could still be difficult. He points to Federal Reserve policies and oil prices as ongoing factors that could hinder its progress.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire gave markets a brief moment to breathe. 

The price of oil dropped sharply, falling from almost $117 a barrel to around $90. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surpassed $72,000, and stock prices generally increased, along with other investments considered risky.

However, David Duong, who leads institutional research at Coinbase, suggests this positive trend might not last long.

Related reading:

Trump, Iran, and BTC: Why This Rare Ceasefire Moved Bitcoin Price Up

Ceasefire Brings Relief, But Bitcoin’s Risks Are Not Gone

Duong called the ceasefire a positive step that reduces the immediate danger of energy prices spiking. He also pointed out that the underlying issues causing the conflict haven’t been addressed.

Shipping companies are still seeking greater guarantees of safety before they return to normal operations in the Hormuz Strait. Oil markets are currently under pressure, and disruptions to the supply chain could continue even if diplomatic efforts succeed.

According to Duong, the recent market activity provided some temporary relief, but didn’t fundamentally change things. This is important for cryptocurrency investors. Bitcoin’s future performance will likely depend on oil prices in the coming weeks.

A ceasefire headline alone does not resolve the Fed’s difficult position.

As an analyst, I’m watching the situation in the Middle East closely, and the recent developments have created a tricky situation for the Federal Reserve. We saw a temporary de-escalation on Tuesday night with a two-week ceasefire agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran, but the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains a point of contention – it will only fully reopen if a solid ceasefire agreement and actual peace talks, scheduled to start Friday, materialize. The market reaction was swift; oil prices dropped significantly as soon as the news broke…

— David Duong (@DavidDuong)

Strong Jobs Data Keeps the Fed Stuck in the Middle

March nonfarm payrolls came in at 178,000,  nearly triple the 65,000 economists expected. 

While the job market appears strong at first glance, a closer look reveals a different picture, according to Duong.

Labor-force participation stayed low at 61.9%. 

Pay increases are happening at a slower pace, growing by 3.5% compared to last year. Initial reports of job growth often appear higher, but are usually revised downwards later on.

Although the ceasefire eased concerns about oil prices, the Federal Reserve is still facing a difficult situation. Economic growth is slower than it appears, but not slow enough to warrant lowering interest rates, particularly because inflation related to the war hasn’t completely disappeared.

According to Duong, the future direction of oil prices will be a key indicator of how markets are reacting to news about the conflict and upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve. Specifically, how oil responds at certain price points will reveal how long investors expect the conflict to last.

Read also:

BTC at $69,700 But Every Chart Signal Says Watch Out

Oil Price Levels Are the Key Signal for Crypto Markets

Duong shared a straightforward framework for reading market sentiment through oil. 

Around the end of March, the price of oil kept dropping each time it tried to reach $100, indicating that traders thought that price was too high.

After buyers overcame initial resistance and oil prices stayed above $100, Duong predicted a potential rise to $119. However, the ceasefire halted this upward trend, causing futures prices to quickly fall from $117.

Still, crude oil sits in the $90s resting on support,  not back at pre-war levels. 

Duong highlighted two likely situations affecting investments. If the price of oil drops and stays below $84 a barrel, it should help bring down inflation, increasing the chances of a faster improvement in the economic outlook.

If the price of oil goes back over $100 a barrel and stays there, it will likely signal that markets expect a long-lasting conflict. This could negatively impact Bitcoin and other investments considered risky.

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2026-04-10 21:56