Circle Stock Soars: War, Oil, and Larry’s Confusion

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Markets

What’s the deal here?

  • Circle shares jumped another 20% this week because apparently bombing Iran is good for business. Who knew?
  • Mizuho says oil prices are spiking, inflation’s back, and the Fed’s rate cuts are as likely as me winning a marathon. Great news for Circle’s reserve income, I guess?
  • The bank bumped Circle’s price target to $100 from $90. Neutral rating, though. Because why commit?

So, Circle (CRCL) shares are up 20% this week. Why? Because Israel and the U.S. decided to play fireworks with Iran, and oil prices went, “Hold my crude.” Mizuho’s like, “Yeah, this is great for Circle because inflation’s back, baby, and the Fed’s rate cuts are as dead as my social life.”

Here’s the kicker: Circle makes money from interest on U.S. government debt. Higher rates? Cha-ching. Lower rates? Crickets. So, thanks to this Middle East drama, Circle’s sitting pretty. Meanwhile, I’m still trying to figure out why my coffee costs $7.

Since the weekend’s airstrikes, WTI crude’s up 7-8%. Geopolitical risk? Supply disruptions? Sounds like a bad reality show. Crypto markets freaked out, Bitcoin dipped, but now it’s back at $68,100. Because, you know, stability.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins are like, “Hey, no rate cuts? That’s an extra 1% revenue for Circle in 2026 and 2027.” Also, the “right tail risk” of no cuts in 2026 just doubled. Whatever that means. Sounds like they’re hedging their bets harder than I hedge my taxes.

Bitcoin’s up 5% in the last 24 hours. Circle’s price target? $100. Stock’s trading at $101.90. Mizuho’s still neutral. Because why take a stand when you can sit on the fence?

Long-term, stablecoins might become as exciting as watching paint dry, but for now, Circle’s riding high. Last week’s 45% short squeeze was wild, bouncing back from an 80% nosedive. Talk about a rollercoaster. I’d rather ride the subway.

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2026-03-03 20:54