BTC’s $95K Rejection: A Tale of Woe and Waning Bulls 🐂💥

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Lo! Behold the noble Bitcoin, once a proud steed, now trodding in a circle, pondering its fate. After a sharp sell-off, as fierce as a Cossack’s scowl, it hath entered a consolidation phase, a state of limbo, neither fully alive nor entirely dead, much like a soul caught between heaven and hell. The broader trend, alas, remains under pressure, while short-term price action compresses, a tightrope walker’s dance, teetering on the edge of a cliff.

Bitcoin’s Daily Chart: A Rising Wedge of Despair

On the daily timeframe, BTC doth form a rising wedge, a structure as tight as a Russian matryoshka doll. The pattern, ever tightening, with both higher and lower boundaries tested multiple times, hints at a breakout nigh. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, those venerable guardians, remain above the current price, casting shadows near $98K and $105K, as if to say, “Not so fast, ye fools!”

Bitcoin’s price, alas, was recently rejected from the $95K supply zone, a place of cursed coins. The RSI, once a fiery bull, now cools to 50, a state of neutrality, yet with room for a potential push, if buyers return, which they likely will not. 🐻

In this plight, if the wedge breaks downward, the next support lies around $80K, a place of dire warnings. A bullish breakout, however, would require reclaiming $95K and pushing above the said moving averages, a task as daunting as climbing Mount Everest in a blizzard.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart: A Dance of Frustration

Zooming in, the same rising wedge becomes more visible, a puzzle of frustration. The price, ever respectful of the rising trendline from November’s low, yet multiple attempts to break $95K have failed, as if the very cosmos conspires against it.

Momentum on lower timeframes is choppy, a dance of indecision, with no clear follow-through. Buyers defend the mid-range and the rising trendline, but the lack of strength near resistance is a warning, a siren’s call to caution. 🚨

A breakdown below $88K would likely trigger a retest of the high-volume node near $86K, and perhaps push BTC toward the major green demand zone around $80K. On the flip side, if buyers reclaim $92K and break $95K, an aggressive move toward $100K could be expected, though such hopes are as fleeting as a snowflake in summer.

Sentiment Analysis: The Coinbase Premium Index’s Lament

The Coinbase Premium Index, that most reliable of oracles, hath printed significant negative values, still red as a beet. Historically, strong positive premiums have accompanied major uptrends, especially when driven by U.S.-based spot buyers. Now, however, it is a tale of woe, a warning of reduced demand from U.S. institutional and retail players. 🐻💸

This metric, like a faithful dog, hath often preceded deeper pullbacks during correction phases. Until the premium shifts back to positive, any bullish move should be treated with the caution of a man approaching a bear in the woods. 🐻

 

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2026-01-12 16:14