Bitcoin’s Unstoppable Rise: 21Shares Says Downtrend Unlikely

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Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that has been making headlines for its meteoric rise, isn’t likely to enter a downtrend anytime soon, according to a researcher at crypto product provider 21Shares. Matt Mena, the company’s crypto research strategist, told CryptoMoon that the structural imbalance between surging demand and a rapidly vanishing supply base makes a prolonged correction increasingly unlikely.

“There are far more positives than negatives right now,” Mena added, with a hint of sarcasm and a wink emoji ;).

Exchange, OTC Bitcoin supply at all-time lows

Mena said that the Bitcoin (BTC) supply held on crypto exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) desks continues to stay at an all-time low while demand for the cryptocurrency continues to rise. “On the supply side, the fundamentals remain even more skewed,” he said.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $122,884 on Monday, and Bitfinex said that new buyers entering the Bitcoin market are seen as price-agnostic and are scooping up the cryptocurrency faster than miners can supply it. But Bitwise head of research André Dragosch pointed out on Friday that the lack of Google search interest for the term “Bitcoin” could indicate a lack of interest by retail investors.

“Bitcoin is at new all-time highs, but retail is almost nowhere to be found,” Dragosch said, with a hint of disappointment. 😞

Bitcoin’s new high of $122,884 came just days after it broke its all-time high of $111,970 on July 9, before entering an uptrend that extended into the weekend.

Bitcoin is trading at $117,804 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Mena said that in the first half of this year, “US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed several multiples of the BTC that will be mined this year.”

“That doesn’t even include corporate treasury buyers, who continue to add quietly in the background,” he added, with a conspiratorial grin emoji 😉.

Macro risks could jeopardize Bitcoin uptrend

However, Mena cautioned that a reversal can’t be ruled out entirely.

“It is certainly possible that Bitcoin consolidates, or even sees a pullback,” he said, flagging two macro risks that could weigh on the crypto market:

“If Trump’s proposed tariffs end up being more severe than markets currently anticipate, or if Powell signals that rate cuts are further off than expected, we could see risk assets broadly reprice lower, including Bitcoin.”

21Shares forecasts that an extended price drawdown over the next six months unlikely “is unlikely,” Mena said.

“Once summer ends and liquidity returns, we expect upside momentum to resume,” he added, with a confident nod emoji 👍.

Mena said that what’s truly remarkable is that Bitcoin is setting new all-time highs during the most illiquid, seasonally weak part of the year.

Historically, the third quarter of the year has been Bitcoin’s weakest-performing quarter, averaging just a 6.32% return since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.

“Historically, summer is when markets stagnate — traders are on holiday, volume dries up, and price action flattens,” Mena said, with a shrug emoji 🤷‍♂️. “But this cycle is defying that norm.”

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2025-07-16 06:25