Bitcoin’s Red October: Is a Green November a Reality or Just a Pipe Dream?

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin is on track to close October with a red mark, ending a glorious six-year “Uptober” streak.

  • Traders are in chaos: some are fearing the crash of the century, while others are still dreaming of new highs in Q4.

Ah, October. A month where pumpkins are carved, the wind chills the bones, and Bitcoin tends to rise like a phoenix. Or, well, it used to. But this year, for the first time in seven long years, it’s looking more like a cryptic tombstone with red ink splashed across it. The streak is dead. Long live the streak!

Bitcoin Breaks the “Uptober” Curse

For six years, October has been like that lucky rabbit’s foot everyone holds onto, bringing sweet gains to Bitcoin holders. But now, the magic seems to have faded, and the ghost of “Uptober” is haunting us no more. The gains? Gone. The optimism? Shattered like a broken pumpkin at a Halloween party.

October-famously good to Bitcoin since 2013-has only gone red twice before, in 2014 and 2018. Six years of consecutive growth felt like a warm blanket in the crypto winter. Now? A cold wind blows. The price is down 3.35% as October nears its end. Spooky.

“We need a miracle!” said analyst Jelle, clinging to the hope of a last-minute surge. He wasn’t wrong, though. One green candle could still save the day… but it’s looking more like a funeral than a resurrection.

And what caused this horrific drop, you ask? The usual suspects: US-China tariff threats, Fed rate cuts, and the general financial chaos that seems to follow Bitcoin like a loyal, yet terrifying, pet. Traders? Shaken, stirred, and thoroughly confused.

“October turned red for the first time in 7 years!” tweeted TraderAAG, who, in a moment of deep reflection, added:

“The crypto market humbled a lot of traders this month – momentum faded, confidence shaken.”

And then, of course, we had Crypto Damus, who’s never one to pass on an opportunity for drama. He said October was like nothing we’ve ever seen. “This is the worst October since 2018’s Bear Market,” he declared. And honestly, who could blame him? The volatility has been… well, let’s just say it’s been an emotional rollercoaster that nobody asked for.

There is nothing “normal” about this #BTC Volatility

October is statistically the 2nd best month of the year for #BTC

This is the worst October since the 2018 Bear Market

and only the 3rd Red October since 2013

– CRYPTO Damus (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025

The Big November Question: Bull or Bear?

Now, as October limps to a close, the big question looms: will November bring redemption, or are we headed straight for another crash? Some optimists are betting that October’s weakness is just a prelude to a monstrous rally in November. Others, though, are sharpening their knives, fearing that Bitcoin’s bull run has already hit the brakes.

The last time Bitcoin ended October in the red, it was 2018, and well… that didn’t end so hot. “November saw a brutal 36.57% drop,” said analyst Crypto Rover, who, let’s face it, probably slept through the entire month of November in 2018. He added, with a hint of sarcasm:

“Should we be worried this time?”

Timothy Peterson, another analyst with a flair for dramatic timing, took a different approach. “Does a weak October actually matter?” he asked, as if we didn’t already know the answer. His conclusion? October’s performance has virtually no bearing on the following months. But still, his numbers didn’t lie. On average, Bitcoin’s post-October returns are only 11% when the month’s a bust. That’s half of what you’d expect after a strong October. What a lovely thought.

“Bitcoin’s 3-month return after a weak October averages 11%. After a strong October, it’s 21%. So, yeah. Enjoy the next 3 months, folks.”

But hey, who needs historical data when you’ve got the wild ride that is Bitcoin, right? November, after all, is Bitcoin’s best month historically, averaging a juicy 46% increase over the last 12 years. For context, Q4 from October to December has been known to bring Bitcoin’s most epic gains, averaging 78%. So, who knows? Maybe Bitcoin will do what it does best: confuse the masses and make everyone wish they’d bought more in October.

If we go by past performances, Q4 has been the place to be. 57% gains in Q4 2023. 48% gains in 2024. Even in 2017, Bitcoin was up a mind-boggling 480%. Is that something you want to miss? Spoiler: probably not.

Even during the bleakest of bear markets-2018 and 2022-Bitcoin managed to make some moves. Though, it did lose 42% in 2018. But who’s counting, really?

But seriously, if history is anything to go by, we might just see Bitcoin skyrocket towards $150,000 by the end of 2025. That is, unless the entire global financial system collapses. But hey, no biggie.

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2025-10-31 12:48