Currently, a record percentage of all Bitcoins in circulation are held by long-term investors. Historically, this would strongly suggest that the price is likely to increase.
A recent report from CryptoQuant highlighted a potential problem: a large portion of the cryptocurrency supply is held by a few entities, and at the same time, demand is very weak. CryptoQuant calls this a significant lack of buyers.
Bitcoin’s largest holders have stopped accumulating.
Since September 2025, the amount of cryptocurrency held by dolphins has been steadily decreasing, forming a pattern of lower highs. Meanwhile, the balances held by whales have remained relatively unchanged since February 2026.
Historically, when both cohorts stall simultaneously, sustained price weakness tends to follow.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 28, 2026
It’s possible for current owners to strongly believe in a product or asset while new people aren’t buying it, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the market right now – a situation where both things are true at the same time.
Bitcoin experienced a slight overnight increase of 0.5%, remaining just above $73,000. However, it’s down 5.5% over the last week, with $32.1 billion in trades today.
Record Bitcoin HODLing Without Fresh Demand is a Structural Problem, Not a Bullish Setup
The real question isn’t whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling – they’re clearly holding on. Instead, we need to figure out if the current extremely low supply of Bitcoin available for sale, without a surge in new purchases, will act as a price floor, or just limit how much the price can rise. Essentially, will it keep Bitcoin stuck in a narrow price range where even small sales can significantly impact the price?
Recent data from CryptoQuant shows a significant decrease in new Bitcoin addresses being created, hitting a low not seen in months. At the same time, the rate at which Bitcoin is being moved to accumulation addresses has slowed considerably since the beginning of 2026. An analysis of Bitcoin’s ‘Realized Cap HODL Wave’ reveals that older, long-held coins now make up a larger portion of the total, suggesting there’s a limited supply of Bitcoin readily available for trading. However, this situation alone isn’t enough to trigger a major price change.
Something like this makes sense for $BTC.
What do you guys think?
— Ted (@TedPillows) May 29, 2026
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, investment into the crypto market has essentially stopped around the $95,000 price point. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn adds that demand from both individual and larger investors is significantly down, meaning there’s little active buying at current prices. This lack of activity, combined with decreasing deposits from large investors onto exchanges during price increases – which is what current data shows – suggests the recent price recovery is weak and likely due to a lack of substantial buying interest, rather than strong demand.
The limited number of available coins is only beneficial if there’s actual demand from buyers. Otherwise, a small supply doesn’t create a price increase; it just makes the market vulnerable. Even a small amount of selling, especially with negative economic news, could cause a significant price drop. Historically, this kind of market situation usually signals that something is about to happen – it rarely means things will stay the same.
Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months.
Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.
The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 29, 2026
DISCOVER: Best Meme Coins to Buy in 2026
ETF Inflows Have Entered a Fatigue Phase and the Transmission Mechanism Is Weakening
As an analyst, I’ve observed a significant change in the Bitcoin market. Throughout 2024, the influx of money into US spot Bitcoin ETFs was a major factor driving institutional investment. However, that strong buying pressure has now diminished, and ETF inflows are no longer the dominant force they once were. They’re still contributing, but to a much lesser extent.
Initially, SoSoValue observed daily net inflows in the billions of dollars when the ETF first launched. However, these inflows have since decreased to the low millions, with some days even seeing net outflows. More recently, the trend has stabilized with a slight increase in accumulation.
While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC still hold the most assets, the initial excitement that led institutions to invest in them seems to have faded.
Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms entering the Bitcoin ETF market created a price level that’s unlikely to be broken, essentially a safety net. However, simply having this base price and actively buying Bitcoin to support it are two different things, and that active buying has decreased recently.
How buying and selling actually works is important in this situation. When most of the Bitcoin available for immediate sale is already held long-term (locked up), and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are the main source of new purchases, any slowdown in ETF buying has an immediate and strong effect on prices because there isn’t much Bitcoin readily available. Data from Glassnode in late 2025 showed this happening: ETF outflows briefly caused a sudden drop in the Bitcoin price before things stabilized.
Those following the market have noticed a familiar pattern: strong institutional interest isn’t translating into higher prices. Money that might normally flow into Bitcoin during times of uncertainty is instead going towards gold and silver, creating extra competition for investment and contributing to the lower demand for Bitcoin.
From my perspective, the recent success of crypto ETFs probably won’t pick up steam again unless we see significant progress on the Crypto Clarity Bill here in the US. Or, alternatively, we’d need a change in the Federal Reserve’s stance that encourages investors to take on more risk. Right now, those catalysts just aren’t there, so I don’t anticipate a big surge in ETF demand on its own.
DISCOVER: Best Meme Coins to Buy for June
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2026-05-29 22:25