What to know:
- On a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold, JPMorgan estimates bitcoin could rise about 40% to £165,000 (or thereabouts) from the current £119,000.
- The bank says retail investors are driving the “debasement trade,” a term one imagines was coined by someone who has never met a metaphor they didn’t wish to overuse.
- Institutional investors are also participating through CME futures, the report said, but that activity has slowed compared to retail ETF demand. One might say the air is thick with speculation and a dash of retail enthusiasm.
Madam JPMorgan, that esteemed banking establishment, hath opined that bitcoin may ascend to approximately £165,000, should it emulate gold’s recent rambunctious jaunt. The bank’s models suggest such a leap would match the grandeur of private gold holdings, once risk hath been accounted for. How thrilling! Or perhaps terrifying, depending on one’s appetite for financial chaos.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency, that modern-day alchemist’s stone, was trading around £119,000 at publication time. A figure so precise it makes one yearn for the days of counting coins in a tea caddy.
The debasement trade, that most fashionable of investments, involves procuring assets such as gold or bitcoin to hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies. A most prudent strategy, if one believes governments will continue printing money like confetti at a royal wedding.
This projection coincides with retail investors, those bold and oft-impetuous souls, rushing headlong into the debasement trade, splashing funds into bitcoin and gold ETFs. Analysts, led by the ever-so-astute Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have noted that flows into these products surged since late 2024, a trend accelerated by the U.S. presidential election. How very timely, if one enjoys political drama and market volatility in equal measure.
The analysts framed the trade as a response to long-term inflation concerns, ballooning government deficits, and a waning trust in fiat currencies. A most rational conclusion, one supposes, for those who find solace in uncertainty.
Cumulative flows into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs have risen sharply, with retail buyers leading the charge. Bitcoin ETFs initially outpaced gold, but gold ETFs have since caught up, narrowing the gap. A most cordial rivalry, if one ignores the potential for financial ruin.
Institutional investors, though present, prefer CME futures over ETFs, their momentum lagging behind retail demand. A curious choice, akin to preferring a horse-drawn carriage over a steam engine.
The steep rise in gold prices hath also bolstered bitcoin’s appeal, with the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio drifting below 2.0. This shift, the bank suggests, underscores bitcoin’s undervalued state, its price currently £50,000 shy of JPMorgan’s model. A discrepancy so glaring it makes one wonder if the model was penned by a man who has never held a quill.
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2025-10-02 17:16