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Bitcoin’s Fate Hangs in the Balance: Will Strong US Job Market Spell Doom?

BBG News

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight dip following the release of the US June employment report, which revealed unemployment dropping to 4.1%, contrary to the anticipated 4.3%. This decline in unemployment might prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain interest rates, potentially burdening risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Strong Employment Data May Deal a Blow to Bitcoin

The lower-than-expected unemployment rate complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, especially amidst ongoing pressure from US President Donald Trump to expedite rate cuts.

The robust labor market data, released today, underscores the continued strength of the US economy, diminishing the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. Notably, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 147,000 in June, significantly surpassing analysts’ expectations of 118,000 new jobs.

With the unemployment rate plummeting to its lowest level since February 2025 and NFP growth exceeding forecasts, the Fed is likely to maintain elevated interest rates for longer to ensure inflation continues to trend downward.

Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool now shows a 95.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its July 30 meeting. This is substantially up from 75% before the jobs report.

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, contributor Amr Taha noted that a strong job market could hurt Bitcoin in the near term. He explained:

A resilient jobs market supports a stronger US dollar, since expectations for a delayed or reduced pace of interest rate cuts make the greenback more attractive relative to other currencies. Historically, strong NFP readings and hawkish Fed expectations tend to pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Binance Sees Aggressive BTC Buying Activity

Meanwhile, Taha also highlighted a sharp spike in Binance’s Net Taker Volume just before the release of the employment data. The metric surpassed $100 million, signaling a surge in aggressive buying activity.

The jump in Net Taker Volume on Binance reflects strong bullish sentiment among Bitcoin investors and traders. For context, Net Taker Volume measures the difference between aggressive buy and sell orders on an exchange, indicating which side – buyers or sellers – is dominating market activity.

Some analysts believe Bitcoin could see more upside due to its sustained positive price momentum in recent weeks. For example, BTC’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to move toward its upper trendline, a pattern that has historically preceded new all-time highs (ATHs).

That said, not everyone shares the bullish view. In a recent post on X, veteran crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that Bitcoin has flashed a rare bearish signal that could push the price down to $40,000. At press time, BTC trades at $109,114, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours.

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2025-07-04 12:18

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