Bitcoin’s Binance On-Chain Data Signals Bullish Momentum: $75K Next?

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<a href="https://tech-oracle.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a>: What the <a href="https://bbg-news.com/bnb-usd/">Binance</a> On-Chain <a href="https://bbg-news.com/data">Data</a> Tells Us

Key Takeaways

  • BTC at $72,750 on Binance, holding above rising 50 SMA at $72,195.
  • Binance exchange inflows collapsed to 842 BTC on April 11.
  • Squeeze Risk Oscillator at -0.32.
  • Binance Whale Concentration Ratio at 79.43%, USDT reserve at $2.45B.
  • Binance shows highest OI-price correlation of any major exchange.

What the Chart Shows – and Why Binance Specifically

Bitcoin is currently trading at $72,750 on Binance, just slightly below today’s high of $72,777. Yesterday, the price briefly exceeded $73,000 following the release of the latest CPI data. The 50-day Simple Moving Average is at $72,195 and is trending upward, now providing support after Bitcoin moved above it during the price increase on April 8th. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53.23, with its signal line at 58.70. Both indicators suggest a neutral to slightly positive outlook, as momentum has eased from its recent peak but hasn’t reached overbought levels, and is currently stabilizing.

The price movement since April 8th is significant. A surge following the ceasefire pushed the price from $68,900 to $72,400, with the highest trading volume we’ve seen. After a slight dip, the price found support around $70,800, which is a positive sign. It has since bounced back to $72,777, creating a new high. The fact that we’re seeing higher lows and higher highs, combined with the rising 50-day Simple Moving Average, indicates a healthy trend, no matter what’s happening in the broader market.

We’re focusing on Binance for this analysis because it’s the primary exchange influencing Bitcoin’s price. Unlike other major exchanges, Binance consistently shows a strong, immediate relationship between trading interest (open interest) and price changes – trading activity rises and falls *with* the price, not after it. The data we’ll be looking at comes specifically from Binance, as that’s where the actual trading that moves Bitcoin’s price is taking place.

The Inflow Collapse That Changes the Supply Picture

On April 8th, Binance saw a large surge in Bitcoin deposits – around 4,900 BTC – which was the highest amount recorded and happened around the time a ceasefire was announced. This influx of Bitcoin created the most significant selling pressure during the recent price increase. Since then, the amount of Bitcoin entering Binance has been consistently decreasing: falling to 3,550 BTC on April 9th, 3,350 BTC on April 10th, and just 842 BTC on April 11th – roughly a sixth of the peak amount.

Despite increased Bitcoin entering exchanges recently, the price hasn’t dropped. It’s remained above $72,000, and the amount of Bitcoin being sent to exchanges for sale has decreased. This suggests that most sellers who were looking to capitalize on the recent price increase have already sold their Bitcoin. The selling pressure from that peak is now lessening, leaving a market above $72,000 with fewer coins available to sell than just a few days ago.

What the Squeeze Risk Oscillator Is Saying

The Binance Squeeze Risk Oscillator, currently at -0.32, suggests selling pressure is easing. Key levels to watch are +0.80 (signaling the end of short selling) and -0.80 (signaling the end of long selling). The current reading indicates sellers are losing momentum, but we haven’t yet seen the strong reversal signal that -0.80 would indicate. There’s potential for further price movement before reaching that level.

The MVRV Adaptive Z-Score, currently at -1.41, has moved above its 30-day average of -1.66. This often suggests that the chance of Bitcoin hitting new lows has decreased significantly. Unlike some indicators that focus on short-term price movements, the MVRV Z-Score looks at a full year of data, confirming this trend over a longer period. Supporting this, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio is at 10.62, meaning there’s a substantial amount of purchasing power available but currently not being used. The next section will explore who holds this potential buying power.

Who Is Actually Running This Rally

The funds backing the stablecoin are currently untouched, meaning the entity controlling them hasn’t needed to access them. We’ve identified this entity through a Binance Whale Concentration Ratio of 79.43%. This entity holds $2.4586 billion in USDT on Binance, which could be used to counteract any significant selling pressure if prices rise.

A price increase driven by typical retail investors looks different than what we’re seeing now. Usually, we’d expect widespread buying, scattered data on open interest, and an indicator suggesting a potential price top. None of those signs are here. Instead, this price move appears to be led by a large investor (‘whale’), with few sellers remaining, healthy reserves of stablecoins, and Binance playing the main role in determining the price across the market.

It’s unusual to see five different data sources all pointing in the same direction. In the past, when a large percentage of Binance trading (over 79%) is held by a few large players, and stablecoin reserves are strong while the Squeeze Risk Oscillator isn’t showing signs of overheating, the price tends to go up – at least until one of those factors changes. The next key price level to watch is $75,000, where a ‘short squeeze’ could happen, potentially driving the price higher as traders who bet against the price are forced to cover their positions. Currently, there’s nothing to suggest this test of $75,000 won’t be attempted, or that it will fail.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. It’s essential to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before making any investment choices.

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2026-04-11 11:11