Bitcoin’s Bearish Blunder: Will It Hibernate for a Year?

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The Bitcoin price has tumbled to a two-month low, hovering near $83,000, a level not seen since the leaves turned brown in November. From its recent high of $98,000, it has plummeted by nearly $14,700, a 15% drop in just over two weeks. This steady decline hints at more than a fleeting stumble, even as the US dollar weakens and Bitcoin fails to lure safety-seeking buyers.

The crypto market now whispers of a bear, with technical and liquidity indicators pointing south. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen nods sagely, “It’s a bear market, alright. Bitcoin’s decline follows a familiar pattern, regardless of news or sentiment.”

Cowen believes Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 and has been sliding since. Historically, Bitcoin peaks in the fourth quarter of major cycle years (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025), followed by a prolonged downturn. The current cycle, despite hopes for a different outcome, seems to be following the same script.

Cowen draws parallels to 2019, when Bitcoin declined slowly without hype, altcoins underperformed, and prices fell steadily before broader financial conditions improved. Today, Bitcoin’s fall precedes any clear liquidity improvement, echoing 2019.

Previous bear markets lasted around a year. The 2018 bear stretched to 12 months, and the 2022 downturn followed suit. If this decline began in October 2025, Cowen expects it to persist until late 2026. Past downturns in Bitcoin-related stocks took nearly two years to bottom, suggesting this cycle could be similarly prolonged.

Based on historical cycles, Bitcoin may bottom between mid-2026 and late 2026, potentially dropping to $50,000, a major support level. In an extended bear scenario, where selling pressure intensifies and support levels fail, BTC could slide further to $30,000, a range marking deep bear markets.

Bitcoin currently trades around $83,000, with $80,000 acting as a psychological barrier. Below that, $74,000-$75,000 is a historical support zone. Deeper, $71,000 marks the midpoint of the last rally. For now, Bitcoin holds between $80,000 and $84,000, a zone that has acted as support before. The market tests this zone for the third time, increasing the odds of a short-term rebound. While many expected Bitcoin to dip closer to $80,000 before stabilizing, current action suggests selling pressure eases slightly above that level.

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2026-01-30 13:21