Bitcoin’s 80% Rally Replay: Will History Rhyme Again?

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bounces back from a 5.5% dip after the latest Israel-Iran conflict escalation, echoing a pattern seen in October 2024.

  • Analysts spot a bullish fractal involving liquidity grabs, hinting that BTC could soon surge to new highs.

  • Macro tailwinds and whale accumulation support a potential rally to $150,000 or more in 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing signs of bullish rejection, shrugging off recent selling pressure sparked by the renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. This setup is strikingly similar to one that preceded an 80% rally in late 2024.

Bitcoin bulls defend 2024-era trendline

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The bounce aligns with a successful retest of Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA; the red wave), a technical level that has historically acted as reliable support.

This price structure closely mirrors Bitcoin’s performance in October 2024, when it fell 8.8% after Iran launched a missile barrage on Israel.

That decline also found support at the 50-day SMA, with BTC bottoming just around $60,500. What followed was a sharp reversal: Bitcoin surged over 80% by December, topping around $108,365.

A study by Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise’s ETP arm ETC Group, shows that while Bitcoin often sees a short-term price decline during periods of geopolitical tension or conflict, it consistently rebounds.

On average, BTC recovers within 50 days and, in most cases, surpasses its pre-event price levels, underscoring the asset’s resilience in the face of global uncertainty.

The current pullback may prove to be another brief pause in Bitcoin’s broader uptrend, especially in the wake of recent positive updates.

That includes the rising odds of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and easing US-China trade tensions.

Onchain data confirms renewed whale accumulation, suggesting that large investors buy into price weakness.

Bitcoin setting up for ‘liquidity grab’ price explosion

Market analyst Merlijn The Trader points to a separate fractal unfolding, one driven by “liquidity grabs” by traders.

His side-by-side chart comparison shows signs of BTC breaking above a descending trendline and “range high” resistance, just as it did ahead of its surge past $100,000 after the Israel-Iran conflict in late 2024.

“Same structure. Same trap. Same breakout,” the analyst wrote, adding:

“In 2024, $BTC exploded after the liquidity grab. In 2025, it’s setting up again.”

Many analysts see Bitcoin’s price rallying to record highs in 2025, with year-end predictions ranging from $150,000 to over $200,000.

One skeptical analysis, though, sees BTC’s uptrend having been exhausted near its current record high of $112,000.

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2025-06-13 15:29