Bitcoin’s $69K Stumble: Will It Hit $60K Before 2026?

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The Bitcoin price is sneaking around $69,926 like a nervous teenager trying to avoid eye contact. But here’s the kicker: not everyone’s convinced the worst is over. In fact, some folks are acting like they’ve just been told their favorite snack is now gluten-free.

In a recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, Arthur Hayes made it clear that if he had $1 to invest today, it wouldn’t be going into BTC. He’d be waiting for the Fed to start printing money like it’s a hobby. Because, let’s be real, the only thing more exciting than a geopolitical crisis is a central bank with a printing press.

According to this view, it’s not war that’s bullish for crypto. It’s the monetary response that follows. Because nothing says “I love you” like a bunch of cash. And by “cash,” we mean “quantitative easing.”

Bitcoin Price Hinges On Money Printing

The argument is simple: geopolitical conflicts trigger risk-off reactions. That means equities fall, liquidity dries up, and yes, crypto gets dragged down with everything else. It’s like when your friend cancels a dinner plan last minute-suddenly, you’re alone with your thoughts and a half-eaten pizza.

LATEST: Arthur Hayes says he would not invest in Bitcoin right now and would wait for the Fed to start money-printing, warning BTC could fall below $60,000 if geopolitical tensions persist.

– CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) March 11, 2026

The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran could create exactly that environment. If the conflict drags on, the theory goes, markets might see a broader sell-off before policymakers step in with stimulus. And that’s the moment many large traders are waiting for. Because nothing says “I’m ready for a comeback” like a good old-fashioned financial crisis.

Once central banks begin easing monetary policy and liquidity floods back into the system, assets that thrive on abundant money supply historically start to move. For anyone tracking a Bitcoin price prediction narrative, that policy shift is seen as the real catalyst-not the conflict itself. Because, let’s face it, no one wants to bet on a war that’s still in the “maybe it’ll blow over” phase.

War Could Trigger Market Liquidations

But let’s be real for a second. Before the liquidity wave comes the storm. And by “storm,” we mean a Bitcoin price drop so steep, it’ll make your average rollercoaster look like a slow walk in the park.

The warning is that prolonged geopolitical stress could trigger a sharp sell-off across equities and crypto markets alike. In that scenario, the Bitcoin/USD pair might not just dip-it could experience cascading liquidations. Because nothing says “I’m confident in my investments” like a sudden 50% crash.

One potential target mentioned? A drop below $60,000. That kind of move wouldn’t be unprecedented. The asset briefly touched the $60K level back on early February, before stabilizing and drifting into a mild recovery phase. Which is basically the crypto equivalent of “I’m fine, really.”

Still, traders watching the Bitcoin price chart know how quickly momentum can flip once leveraged positions start unwinding. It’s like a game of Jenga-everyone’s holding their breath, hoping no one makes a move.

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bottom Missing

And then there’s the on-chain data, the reality check when narratives get loud. Two metrics are currently raising eyebrows, as if they’re in a room full of people who just saw a ghost.

First is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Historically, major cycle bottoms have appeared when NUPL drops below zero. So far, that hasn’t happened yet. Which is like saying the party hasn’t started yet, but the host is already drunk.

Second is Supply in Profit. Right now, roughly 58.6% of supply remains in profit, comfortably above the 50% threshold that historically coincided with major market bottoms. For context, the last major cycle bottom in November 2022 occurred when the metric dropped to around 45% while prices hovered near $16,000. Which is like saying “I’m still in love with you” while secretly planning a divorce.

So what does all that suggest? Simply put, the Bitcoin price may not have reached its ultimate floor yet, even if the long-term outlook remains bullish. Which is like saying “I’m not worried about the future” while already drafting a will.

Interestingly, despite the caution, the same long-term outlook still includes a bold projection: a potential $250,000 valuation by 2026. But before that kind of rally can happen, the market might have to endure one more shakeout. Because nothing says “I’m ready for success” like a few more heart attacks.

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2026-03-11 18:51