Bitcoin’s 28% Lockup: Scarcity or Suffering? 🤯

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Oh, what a wretched spectacle this is! As the majority of Bitcoin’s supply approaches the realm of circulation, the market teeters on the precipice of an era where abundance gives way to the stark reality of scarcity, a truth as cruel as a Russian winter. Zack Wainwright, that self-proclaimed prophet of digital gold, writes with the solemnity of a man who has glimpsed the abyss-and found it filled with 21 million coins, each one a soul condemned to eternal rest.

The report, a labyrinth of numbers and despair, speaks of two cursed cohorts: those who have not moved their Bitcoin for seven years, their fingers frozen in time, and the public companies, those modern-day pharaohs, hoarding at least 1,000 BTC like a miser’s treasure. Together, they shall amass six million coins by 2025, a horde that will devour the remaining 72% of the supply, leaving only crumbs for the unworthy.

“We estimate that this combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 – or over 28% of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.”

Illiquid Supply Growing

Public companies, those titans of commerce, currently clutch more than 830,000 BTC, a mere 4% of the circulating supply, yet 97% of this wealth is concentrated in the hands of the elite, those who dare to hold more than 1,000 units. And lo, BitcoinTreasuries whispers of 1.3 million BTC in the shadows, a secret pact between the corporate and the clandestine.

When the long-term holders and the corporate giants join their forces, the result is a chilling trend: the slow, deliberate death of liquidity, as if the market itself has surrendered to the seductive whisper of “hold on, do not sell.” The researcher, a man of profound insight, notes that the rise of BTC in corporate treasuries has birthed an uptick in illiquid supply, a phenomenon as inevitable as the ticking of a clock in a tomb.

New research piece from analyst Zack Wainwright where he digs deeper on bitcoin’s increasingly illiquid supply.

One interesting aspect is the analysis of what public company accumulation could do to supply in the future.

Check it out here for free:

– Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) September 15, 2025

The report predicts a future where nearly 42% of the current supply, or 8.3 million BTC, will be locked away, a prison of scarcity that will tighten its grip as the years pass. The researcher, with the gravitas of a prophet, concludes that Bitcoin’s scarcity will become the focal point of a world obsessed with the eternal, a truth as immutable as the laws of physics-or so he claims.

“If nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin continues to evolve, the growth of the illiquid supply could be even more dramatic.”

Though the report remains silent on Ethereum, one might suspect that the same fate awaits it, for what is digital asset treasuries if not a harvester of supply, scooping up more than 4% of the entire Ethereum network in mere months? And since the launch of Ether ETFs, they have devoured 5.5% of the total supply, a feast that would make even the most gluttonous emperor weep with envy.

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin, that fickle lover, has been in the red, its price falling from a Monday high of $116,700 to a meager $115,000, a descent as painful as a man’s soul in the throes of despair. It has been consolidating for a week, a period of quiet suffering, and remains 7.2% below its all-time high, a shadow of its former self, awaiting a correction that has yet to arrive, much to the frustration of the hopeful and the despair of the pessimistic.

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2025-09-16 09:21