Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Spark Rare BTC Price Bottom Signal at $107K

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Key points:

  • Bitcoin short-term holders find themselves caught in an “oversold” signal that’s appeared twice in the last year, and yes, it’s as rare as a unicorn.

  • Both times this signal showed up, it marked the price bottom for Bitcoin in the current bull market. Oh, the things that mere mortals could never predict.

  • Bitcoin’s RSI is throwing hints-like breadcrumbs-of a bullish market reversal on low timeframes. But will they follow? Only time will tell. ⏳

Bitcoin (BTC) has just printed a fresh signal, one that’s as familiar as a recurring nightmare to those who’ve lived through previous bull market bottoms.

Frank Fetter, a quant analyst with Vibes Capital Management, threw some juicy findings on X (formerly Twitter) on Sept. 1, revealing a “key hodler capitulation” event. Yes, this sounds like something out of a dystopian novel, but trust me, it’s much less fun.

Bitcoin Bulls Get Their Rare “Oversold” Print

The speculators of Bitcoin, who jump in and out like they’re on some sort of adrenaline-filled rollercoaster, have just reached a “key profit threshold” as BTC/USD plummeted to its lowest since July. Well, that’s a plot twist!

Let’s break this down. The realized price of the short-term holder (STH) cohort-those brave souls holding for under six months-now matches the spot price. It’s like the price has hit a floor, but what happens if it drops further? We may be in for a long, bleak winter of low prices. Who’s ready for that?

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator is like the canary in the coal mine, measuring hodled coins against the price they last moved onchain. And guess what? At current prices, STH-MVRV is at breakeven. But wait, it gets spicier-adding the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator to the mix brings us the coveted “oversold” signal. Ding ding ding! We have a winner.

According to Fetter, the Bollinger Bands are providing a rare “oversold” print for STH MVRV. He was practically jumping for joy when he confirmed, “Officially got the Oversold print on the short-term holder MVRV Bollinger Bands.” It’s a rare sight, sort of like spotting a rare comet, but on the blockchain. 🌠

The bands themselves offer standard deviation levels, allowing the analysts to see how truly exceptional the current STH-MVRV values are. And here’s where it gets fun: this downside deviation only happened twice in the past year. That’s two occasions where the market seemed to freak out, one in August 2024 (blame it on the Japanese yen carry trade) and another in April this year when US trade tariffs caused a dip below $75,000.

Bitcoin RSI Bulls Keep the Dream Alive

Bitcoin’s price action is like a cat walking down a tightrope, teasing a potential rebound after “walking down” the bottom Bollinger Band in late August. You can almost hear the dramatic music playing in the background. 🎶

According to CryptoMoon, the latest correction might be coming to a close, as low-timeframe relative strength index (RSI) readings are showing signs of life. The four-hour RSI has started printing a bullish divergence with the price over the weekend, and it’s still playing out. Of course, data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView confirms this, because if it weren’t confirmed, we wouldn’t be talking about it.

But hold onto your hats-on Monday, MVRV sent us a “death cross” on the daily chart. Not exactly a “let’s pop the champagne” moment. This suggests that the downside pressure isn’t quite finished yet. There’s more drama to come, folks. 😱

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2025-09-02 13:54