Bitcoin is trying to continue its recent gains after a strong bounce back from its low point in June. Now, it’s facing a key resistance level – a point where a downward-trending line meets a major area where many sellers are likely to emerge.
Although buyers are currently showing some strength, it’s still unclear if this will lead to a lasting upward trend or just a temporary bounce before prices fall again.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin is still trading below its key long-term moving averages. The 100-day average currently sits around $70,000, and the 200-day average is near $73,000. Because these averages are trending downwards, it suggests that sellers generally have more control of the market, even with the recent price increase.
As I’ve been tracking Bitcoin, after it dropped down towards the $57,000 – $60,000 support level, it started forming a pattern of higher lows within what looks like a descending channel that’s getting tighter. Recently, we’ve seen a price increase pushing it up toward the top of this channel, which currently lines up with a resistance area between $66,000 and $67,000.
If the price clearly breaks above the recent downward trend and the $66,000 to $67,000 resistance level, it would be the first significant positive sign since the price started falling. This could then open the door to a move towards $74,000, where a key long-term average and another resistance area are located.
If the price doesn’t rise from here, it would confirm a downward trend and likely cause another drop, potentially back to around $60,000. If it falls below that, the $55,000 level is a key support area to watch.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart, things are looking more positive for Bitcoin. Since early June, the price has been moving within a clear downward channel. However, recently, buyers have been successfully pushing the price up, retaking key support levels after it briefly touched around $58,000.
The price has already surpassed key resistance levels around $58,000 and $61,000, and is now approaching a stronger resistance area near $66,000. This $66,000 level is particularly important because it also represents the upper boundary of the current price channel, making it a critical point for near-term price movement.
This recent progress is different from past attempts because it’s gaining strength quickly, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing a level of 70, which suggests strong buying. However, this also means the price might briefly stall or dip slightly if some investors decide to sell and take profits near a resistance level.
If the price stays above the recent trading range, it could signal the end of the current downward trend and potentially lead to a rise towards the $72,000 to $74,000 level.
If Bitcoin can’t break through this price barrier, it will probably continue moving up and down between roughly $61,000 and $58,000, with strong buying interest expected around the $58,000 level.
On-Chain Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is at about 0.18. This is significantly lower than what we typically see when the market reaches its highest points, suggesting it isn’t in a state of excessive excitement.
NUPL tracks how much profit or loss all investors collectively have in the market. High NUPL values usually mean many investors are optimistic and there’s a higher chance they’ll start selling to take profits, while low values suggest most investors aren’t holding substantial gains.
The NUPL indicator has recently started to rise from very low levels, suggesting that Bitcoin network profitability is slowly increasing along with the price. However, it’s still in a range that typically indicates low investor confidence and is nowhere near the extremely high levels seen at the peaks of previous market cycles.
Based on blockchain data, the market doesn’t seem to be selling off profits heavily just yet. If Bitcoin can rise above its current resistance level, the NUPL metric suggests a stronger and more lasting recovery is likely. However, if Bitcoin fails to break through, the NUPL’s recovery might pause temporarily, though it wouldn’t necessarily derail the overall positive trend.
2026-07-21 20:31