Despite signals suggesting prices could still fall, Bitcoin is currently showing technical patterns often seen when it reaches a low point in a market cycle.
According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s potential low point in this market cycle is still likely between $40,000 and $50,000, based on indicators like MVRV and CVDD. However, a recent pattern on Bitcoin’s monthly chart suggests the bear market could be nearing its end, as this pattern has appeared before at similar times in past bear markets.
Rare Technical Trifecta Returns
Martinez says this trading pattern appears when three things happen at the same time: the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) goes down to about 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) falls to around -71, and Bitcoin’s price tests its 50-month moving average.
Historically, whenever we’ve seen this particular market situation, it has often signaled the end of a major downturn and the start of significant price increases. For instance, in March 2015, when Bitcoin was trading around $235, this pattern emerged. Even though the price dipped briefly to $162 afterward, analyst Martinez notes that it accurately predicted an enormous rally – an 8,300% increase overall.
A comparable situation happened in January 2019 when the cryptocurrency was around $3,333 – a bit above its recent low of $3,124 – and it then increased by 1,911%. We saw a similar pattern in December 2022, when the price was at $16,270, slightly above the cycle low of $15,473, and close to its 50-month moving average. Following that, the price rose by 675%, according to the analyst.
Last month, when Bitcoin’s price dropped to $58,000, it created a familiar pattern that we’ve seen before.
Recent analysis shows Bitcoin’s technical indicators are suggesting a potential shift. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now below 43.65, and the Chande Momentum Oscillator has dropped to -71. Bitcoin is currently trading near its 50-month moving average. While there’s still a possibility of Bitcoin revisiting the $40,000 to $50,000 range – a potential temporary price dip, according to Martinez – the current technical picture suggests we’re in a strong period of price consolidation.
Based on that combination of signals, Martinez stated,
Buying Bitcoin directly instead of betting against it looks like a good opportunity right now, offering a potentially high reward for the level of risk involved.
Buying Opportunity
Many investors see this as a good time to buy cryptocurrency, including Martinez and analyst Doctor Profit. Doctor Profit recently warned that waiting for what’s historically been the lowest point in September or October could mean missing out on potential gains. He points out there’s significant support around $54,000, and while Bitcoin might drop another 15% from its current price, he doesn’t believe it will fall below $50,000.
Doctor Profit recommends buying Bitcoin a little bit at a time, instead of trying to time the market and buy everything when prices are lower. He doesn’t think a big price increase will happen right away, but believes several upcoming events could improve investor confidence before Bitcoin hits its lowest point in this cycle.
This covers upcoming plans to offer stock tokens with participation from major financial players like BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, S&P, Nasdaq, and the DTCC. He also discussed potential approval of the CLARITY Act next month.
2026-07-21 19:07