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Bitcoin Futures Go Crazy: Can We Trust Them to Reach $112K?

BBG News

The Pointers of the Day:

  • Well, would you look at that? Bitcoin futures open interest has leaped a staggering +7% in just a mere 30 days—how’s that for bullish vibes?

  • Our friend, the Bitcoin market momentum indicator, is waving the flag for long buys—seems like it’s party time!

Once upon a time in the lands of Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) futures found a new-found vigor, with their open interest (OI) climbing by +7% over the last 30 days. This was the first breath of fresh air after a rather nasty tumble in May when folks were wondering if they’d ever see the sun again. With traders now feeling a little more frisky, they appear to be gearing up for an upward trek, filled with dreams of volume and leverage as ample as the fields of California in spring.🌾

Rising OI—what a magical phrase! History tells us that when OI and price are hand in hand, it usually means the bulls are stampeding. But hold your horses; wise Bitcoin aficionado Axel Adler Jr. has a word of caution. It seems we may need that OI to hit the commendable +10% mark to truly send this party into overdrive, preferably coupled with trading volumes expanding like a small town’s population in a gold rush. 💰

Axel Jr. went on to share his thoughts about the Bitcoin Futures Market Power v2.0 indicator—yes, that’s a mouthful! This little gem currently resides at a humble 22,000. Though shy of the euphoric heights seen during previous rallies, where numbers soared above 80,000, it shows a gentle increase in long-side activity. It seems that this new score is much more welcome than my Uncle Earl at Thanksgiving—a sign that things are warming up nicely without losing their heads. 🤪

In an unexpected twist, Bitcoin’s net futures positioning flipped to the sunny side, boasting a net long exposure of $27.4 million. Fancy that! This optimism has managed to stay afloat for more than 24 hours, hinting that while BTC lingers around $108,000, traders are stacking up their long positions like squirrels hoarding acorns for winter. 🐿️

Bitcoin Has a Date with “Equal Lows” Below $107,000

After basking in the glory of its strongest weekly candle, Bitcoin decided it was time to dip its toes back down to $108,000 from $109,500, creating a double top on shorter timeframes—cue dramatic music! Yet, fear not! BTC tightly clings to its trusty 200-day EMA, refusing to let go just yet.

However, a little dance around those “equal lows” at about $107,300 is looking likely before we can ride the bullish wave again. And you know what they say about equal lows—where there’s multiple identical support levels, there’s a potential buffet of liquidity just waiting to be devoured. In this case, that hefty low aligns with prior liquidity halls, setting the stage for the potential stop-loss hunt that traders just adore. 🎣

Should we slip below $107,000, we could fill that pesky fair value gap between $107,000 and $106,300. And oh! A strong reaction shouting “Buy me!” would be just what the doctor ordered to elevate BTC back above $108,000. Should we fail at this juncture? Well, let’s not open that can—nobody wants to descend into the depths of $105,000.

But there’s always a silver lining! If we could just put on our imaginary capes and defend the mighty $108,000, followed by a clean break above $109,500, we might just tilt this narrative and set sail to lands beyond—like the glorious $112,000—before the week takes its leave!

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2025-07-07 22:43

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